Once the new high sets up shop in the Tasman we’ll see the N-NE flow which has been a constant for a month reset until a front brings a W’ly change on the weekend. No major swells ahead as the pattern of weak, mobile high pressure continues but there’ll be some windows of opportunity with small NE windswell and minor flushes of S swell.
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No major swells this week, so we’ll be relying on small spikes of NE windswell.
We’ll see the wind flow strengthen on Sat as a large high slips in under Tasmania and multiple troughs and a cut-off low forming over the interior tighten the pressure gradient proximate to Eastern Tasmania.
We’ll see an increasing SE-E flow aimed at Tasmania as winds feed into the cut-off low, generating E’ly swells for NETas into the weekend.
E’ly winds feeding into the cut-off low are aimed directly at NETas and will produce sizier swells into Fri.
Expect some revisions on Mon but at this stage we should see a developing E-E/NE flow into the trough, aimed up at NETas, possibly as early as Wed.
There is quite a strong front tracking across the lower Tasman in advance of this high cell, along with a polar low, which will send some useful S swells our way before the high sets up a blocking pattern, which is expected to be reinforced by another large high next week.
We’ll see some small S pulses and NE windswell on the menu this week.
Winds shift more N’ly through Sun, then NW-W/NW and we’ll see some real size as the fetch reaches peak strength through the morning.
Sunday is looking very sizey indeed as the fetch ramps up with low end gales off the coast of Tasmania extending up towards Bass Strait and the Gippsland coast.