Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Better quality S swell pulse Thurs with N-NE winds
• Small NE windswell likely Fri into next weekend

Small S pulse Fri PM, extending into Sat AM

Not much on the radar for next week, small E/NE swells expected

Recap 

A small blend of NE and S swells yesterday provided surf to 2ft under SW tending variable winds. Winds are tending more S-SE today with NE swell gone and S swells to 2-3ft mostly blown out.

This week and next week (Nov20- Nov29)

A large but not especially strong (1029 hPa) high pressure cell is west of Tasmania and slowly moving E where it enters the Tasman and becomes very slow moving. That will be the dominant feature of our synoptic set-up for some time, with a classic summer wind signal of SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending NE through temperate NSW down to Tasmania. There is quite a strong front tracking across the lower Tasman in advance of this high cell, along with a polar low,  which will send some useful S swells our way before the high sets up a blocking pattern, which is expected to be reinforced by another large high next week.

In the short run we’ll see a moderate S swell pulse through tomorrow with size to 3 occ. 4ft across S facing beaches and light winds early tending N/NE as high pressure moves NE of the state.

NE winds continue into Fri with a localised fetch developing off Bass Strait and then extending northwards up towards the Gippsland and South Coasts. Windsspeeds are low, but the fetch should generate some small NE windswell to 2ft through the a’noon. We’ll see some S’ly groundswell show up in the a’noon from a polar low, offering some inconsistent 2ft sets.

Polar low sends some small S groundswell Fri into Sat

Into the weekend and we’ll see light N’ly winds Sat before a trough in advance of a new high pressure centre moving in from the Bight brings a light/variable flow. S swell offers some inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches with small NE windswell to 1-2ft.

Similar light/variable winds for Sun with just a small signal of NE swell to 1-2ft on offer.

Next week looks quiet with small NE windswell on offer through Mon and Tues and variable winds as a succession of weak troughs pass near the state.

By later next week we’ll see a strong high approach the state with winds shifting SE later Wed or Thurs.

As the strong new high moves towards the Tasman we should see an increase in E’ly to E/NE’ly swell either Fri or into the weekend.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.