Pumping surf this week, becoming more user friendly for the second half as deep Tasman low dissipates
We have a powerful swell generating pattern in place with a deep low (993hPa) in the Tasman, supported by a large high (1033hPa) well to the south of the Bight.
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Comments
Years ago I learnt not to take the early stages of a developing low for granted. Not sure what year it was, doesn't matter anyway, but the forecast was for a low to form off the NSW south coast, much as we're seeing now, with all indicators pointing to an acute south swell from winds off its south-west flank. Had 24 hrs or so before that'd eventuate.
Woke expecting short-range south swell to build through the day, but instead the sun rose over seriously big E/SE lines that came from who-knows-where? I raced to get a board from a mate's place and from his verandah breaking waves were visible - a rare sight.
Surfed what was then my local pointbreak all morning - good chance Evosurfer would've been out there - under this surprise swell. It tapered after lunch before the wind switched hard south and the expected south swell began to build.
Ever since then I've always kept an eye on troughs moving offshore, even minor ones with no significant swell expected, knowing they can deepen unpredictably and when they do, in-feeding winds off the other side of the system create swell that's often short-lived but hits more square than the coming south swell.
Think that's what happened yesterday when solid E/SE lines began wrapping into the coast. Not acutely south as the WAMs have for later today and tomorrow, and very user friendly for a wide range of reefs.
By the evening session the swell from that direction was already visibly tapering, and through still present early this morning it felt like the pure south swell would shortly be the predominant swell.
Stu, the low formed higher up than forecast, more off the Cennie Coast than Sydney, and stayed hovering off Illawarra/Sydney much longer than forecast. Consequence, more east direction, longer period of quiet winds Friday and Saturday and much more rain on Sunday than expected.
Unfortunate as my plans were based around it spinning off quickly to the south east and parking itself there.
Not quite. It formed further north but if you looked at the spectra through Sunday you'd have seen significant energy coming from even the E/NE. There's simply no way that was created by winds off its south-west flank.
Not really even speculation; I watched it all on ASCAT.
Yeah the E/NE swell was from the infeed ahead of the trough moving offshore and forming the low.
Finally waves. Yahoo
Autumn delivers again.
Fark!!
Fark alright. Geez it is big in the Shire. A mess, but huge. Hopefully some banks to follow.
Can't recall seeing a fetch like that in such close proximity to the East Coast.
Here we go
Some very big waves at the local. Only a few crew onto it, many happy to hop the insiders and take a run through No Man's but one or two surfers on long equipment toying with the outside ledges. Completely ridable 12ft sets, thick as all get out, just immense walls of water for the East Coast, and a horrible place to be caught out of position.
Love seeing the ocean on days like this.
saw you (i think) on a sick racetrack through no man's with a kind of tube/kind of close out ender. the kicker was that you popped up about 50m away from where you jumped off haha. heavy water this morning
Yeah that was my first wave. Was just going to get one then come in and go to work (g'day Ben!)
I came in after that but saw how good it was so darted back out for a few. Session ended with (another) legrope malfunction and a big swim.
You get out there?
unreal first wave! huge bummer about a third (?) leggie issue but i suppose good to know you're fit enough to survive 12 feet of maelstrom haha.
not for me this morning - double game of soccer last night had me feeling weak and tbh i am quietly happy i had that excuse to bow out of this morning's chaos - probably well beyond my comfort limit. i'll be among the crowd tomorrow though!
Great stuff and read @stu. Good on you mate. Yew!
Saw a set on the South Maroubra cam this morning and saw some crazy things happening out off that headland. Wasn't sure if it ever did that...maybe not!
Seen waves break from spots I have never seen before on a South swell down here. I have seen them break at those spots on massive ENE, E swells but not a South swell.
Look at the data, Parko. 5 metres at 14 seconds from 110 degrees. It's not that far off east. Def not an acute south swell.
Incredible direction for the size.
Yeah Stu, unbelievable those stats, usually its way more South for that size. I Live near a South East facing beach, so its pretty much a direct hit on that angle.
Been working all day, but went down to the local to see long lines of 5 x overhead bombs and a bommie 2km out to sea, I have never seen break. I think it may have broke in the June 2016 swell but I moved down here in August that year haha.
Might try out a reliable semi sheltered spot on the huge swells this evening. Surfed it last night at 6-8ft it might be a bit bigger today. I will leave the 12 ft plus stuff for you, haha
Edit saw the post re Belza maxing, who would have thought?
Amazing ASCAT reading from half an hour ago (11:30AM).
Cyclonic!
Why is it missing some bits in white there?
The data comes from a low orbit satellite, the nature of which means it misses some of the Earth's surface.
It's often a frustrating graph, can miss the main part of a storm by a whisker, but this time it caught it flush. Barbs point the direction of the wind, colour is strength, so there's 50 knot+ winds - which is storm force, or Force 10 if you like drama - spraying the coast from the Illawarra north.
Thanks. I was gonna try for an after work paddle but after seeing all this I think even the bay at Bellza will be maxing.
can confirm that it is
Yeah I’m here now, this is crazy there are waves breaking out in between the boat ramp and the pool but like 500 m out to sea. I have never seen this
Queeny Bombie has some Size
and Wind
Can we get a Deadmans Utube Live Stream going
The bathing pool in front of the hotel at south Bondi is getting hammered.
Stay safe Sydney
This has to be as big as it gets, 15ft?! Huge!
There are some jaw-dropping sets hitting the Illawarra coast right now. Too big for anywhere that I saw. I went up the scarp to look down on the coast and the elevated view shows the energy unloading out on the deep reefs - everything inside is a mess.
Came back down and pulled into Sandon carpark where surfers and every other type of person are rubbernecking the spectacle. Great energy.
Saw Garry Birdsall rock up. Now there's a fella with a history: Garry saw the 1956 US Olympic team unveil their Malibu boards, became the first shaper in the Gong, was on the cover of The Atlantics 'Bombora' charging at Cronulla Point, moved to NZ, moved to Hawaii, shaped everywhere, started companies, came back to the Gong in the 70s to surf and paint.
So the fella has seen a lot...
"What do you reckon, Gaz," I asked. "Have you seen bigger?"
"Maybe," he thought out loud, "but only from that direction" - he was pointing north and I had to assume he meant a rare cyclone swell. I can recall one or two monster NE swells myself, though not for a long time.
"I've never seen it this big from the east or south."
It's a swell to remember.
I’m friends with his son also called Gary, Legend!
1.78m High Tide at Midnight........Collaroy Wall Test
This is insane to watch 12+ft maybe bigger..sets breaking off the reef . Only seen once in 12years ..it’s incredible
And Terrigal is still only 2 foot…… ha
3ft on the sets at terrigal hahaha, 500m up north 12ft
Ha, correct. I shouldn’t put shit on it, it can get ok banks every once in a while, and the haven was pretty solid
I watched the bay/ruins in terrigal this afternoon was absolutely bombing.. biggest in years..
Reefs at Manly looking OK!
15 foot lefts way out off Shark Island:
one crazy/brave dude paddling out at North Bondi now.
He's gone! Didn't last long.
2 Paddled out Nth Bondi.....
Sth Bondi looking like Waimea .
A couple of takers just jumped in at Cronulla point. Didn't stay on the screen for long
Coupla sick drops just went down at Ben Buckler!
How's those mutant ones just out beyond the takeoff zone. Looks huge!
2 Charging out Nth Bondi ATM
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Edit: Just came in.
Changed up the attack this arvo. Took the guns out of the car, put the softboards in.
With my two younger sons we surfed a few kms from the open ocean.
3ft high x 500m long.
Just out of interest did you head North or south of your gaff?
Lord Howe is in the Firing Line Eh .
I have a feeling the morning session will be a little bigger than forecast?
Ha ha...yeah. I didn't see it late but heard there were four surfers out on dark.
So it'll be doable.
Today was epic!!!
Some great waves without actually surfing Mother Nature( Huey ) definitely turned it on
Some epic shots from South of the Bridge
Fk'n hell !!!!
That's a hell of a low!
Nut up and carry a gun boys, a big gun. A rhino chaser. An Elephant gun. And good luck!
Fark.
Fark me.
Epic!