Swells from a deeper fetch associated with the polar low under the front bring longer period S swells on Fri.
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We’ve got a really dynamic outlook this week as a strong high drifts across from the Bight and a trough drawing in tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean moves across the country and eventually enters the Tasman Sea, with a front and long angled trough and possible surface low expected to form in the Tasman late this week.
No change to the wind outlook for the weekend- zonal fronts and weak high pressure to the west and well out in the Coral Sea supply W’ly ridging across Tasmania so more mod/fresh W tending NW winds across the weekend with minor S swells.
Next week we should see a stronger system move NE into the Tasman potentially generating some sizier S swell
By mid next week we may see freshening N-NE flow off the South Coast into Bass Strait generate some NE windswell, possibly sizey.
We have a follow-up front and trough expected to push into the Tasman later Sat, this time backed by a monster high (1042 hPa) in the Bight. Steep pressure gradients will create near gales to gales in a proximate S’ly fetch and whip up plenty of sizey S swell later Sat.
We’ll see another complex of S swell trains make landfall from Mon. Mostly mid period S from the frontal intrusion into the Tasman but there will be come much longer period swells in there from polar sources.
Longer term we may see some long period S swell action as well as swells from the E-E/NE as winds from the strong high feed into an inland trough. Altogether a much more active outlook.
Late next week we’ll see a more significant system develop as a trough deepens into a low off the NSW South or Central Coast.
No major swells on the radar through the short or medium term but we should see some small episodic N’ly windswells.