Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Tues with winds shifting offshore
• Not much at all this week
• Minor NE windswell Fri
• Small bump in S swell Sun

Recap 

Swells from the E-E/NE built through Sat into the 4-6ft range under fresh onshore winds. By Sun we were looking at Sizey surf in the 6-8ft range from the NE. NE winds eventually turned more N-N/NW but conditions remained ragged through Sun. Easing swells today in the 3ft+ range, generally clean under offshore winds, now tending light/mod N’ly.

This week and next week (Dec2- Dec13)

Stability and sunshine will be short-lived for Tasmania as the current low pressure moves away from the Island. A new trough system moves across the Island Tues before weak high pressure moves into the Tasman Wed. No major swells this week, so we’ll be relying on small spikes of NE windswell. A more vigorous S’ly change on the weekend should see a spike in S swell Sun before the pattern of small NE swells resets. 

In the short run, NE winds feeding into the approaching trough freshen tomorrow before the trough brings a W-SW change. Expect NE windswell to 2-3ft, easing behind the change with a good window on offer as winds shift offshore.

Source of NE windswell on Tues- much smaller than the weekend just gone!

Not much at all then for a few days as weak winds in the various swell windows see tiny surf become established, mostly under light winds. Expect tiny, 1ft surf through Wed and Thurs.

We may see a small bump in NE windswell Fri but keep expectations pegged low- it’s unlikely to be more than 1-2ft under a light/variable wind regime.

The front and new trough brings a more vigorous S’ly change on Sat , likely with variable winds most of the day before the change.
Not much surf on offer for Sat with size in the 1-2ft range.

S swell should perk up a notch on Sun in the 2 occ. 3ft range under fresh SW winds.

By Mon, that swell will be on a rapid decline with a few small days ahead as high pressure moves NE and we see a return to a light/mod NE flow.

Some small NE windswell is a possibility during this period.

Further ahead and models are really struggling to resolve the troughiness in the Tasman Sea. GFS is suggesting a broad trough of low pressure in the Tasman which may see a modest increase in E’ly swells towards the end of next week.

EC is favouring a low forming in the lower Tasman late next week, potentially forming a large low off the Gippsland coast and large swells for Tasmania and southern NSW.

We’ll take both of these outcomes with a grain of salt for now and see how they look on Wed. 

Seeya then.