Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Elevated surf from Mon-Thurs as deep Tasman low sits NE of Tasmania- large SE-E/SE swells with fresh S/SE winds Tues
• Winds tending more S-SW’ly on Wed
• Long range S/SE swell fills in Wed, holds Thurs
• Winds improve on Thurs with large swells easing
• Nice mop up day on Fri with light winds
• New S swell Sat
• More S swells next week as frontal progression pushes SE of Tasmania

Recap

Tiny waves Sat with some building S/SE windswell in the a’noon. Surf built a notch on Sun as a low deepened off the south coast NSW. Today is seeing increasing E’ly swells as gales developed yesterday aim up at the Island with winds freshening from the S/SE.

This week and next week (Mar 31- Apr 11)

We have a powerful swell generating pattern in place with a deep low (993hPa) in the Tasman, supported by a large high (1033hPa) well to the south of the Bight. The intense pressure gradient between these two systems is producing gales to low-end storm force winds adjacent to the Illawarra coast, with a broader fetch of SE strong winds located further south. These winds will coalesce later today into a more organised fetch of S-SE gales as the system slowly tracks southwards then S/SE. As a result we’ll see elevated wave heights from the E/SE-S/SE right into mid-week, augmented by some long range S/SE groundswell from another ice shelf fetch in the Ross Sea region adjacent to Antarctica. 

In the short run we’ll see fresh/strong S’ly winds develop as the low dips southwards with L-XL E/SE swells building to 6-8ft or bigger during the day. You’ll need some wind protection to find rideable waves.

Size holds into Wed with 8ft, occ. 10ft sets and S’ly tending SW’ly winds. Just as an add on- there should be some super long period S/SE swell showing Wed (occ. 3ft set) from the ice shelf fetch but it’s unlikely to stand out against the much stronger Tasman Sea swells- just in case you notice some extra long lines.

Thursday looks a better bet for that swell. The Tasman Sea swell will be solid still but slowly easing , still offering up 6-8ft sets, slowly easing. Long period S/SE swell adds in inconsistent 3ft sets. With light winds on offer it looks a really good day for surf. Light W-SW land breezes should persist right through mid-late morning under weak pressure gradients, tending to light a’noon S’ly breezes. 

Friday looks like a really nice mop-up day with a mix of long range S/SE and easing Tasman sea E’ly swells still offering a 3 occ. 4ft set early, dropping below 2-3ft through the a’noon. Winds should be mint again with light offshores through the morning tending to pre-frontal NW winds in the a’noon. A great end to a pumping week of waves.

The weekend should see the start of a series of frontal progressions pushing into the Tasman. 

Not much surf for Sat AM with small S’ly leftovers to 2ft or so, with offshore winds as a front pushes through Bass Strait and NE up towards Central NSW. A late kick in new S swell looks to see surf build to 2-3ft under fresh W/SW winds, but we’ll see how the timing looks through the week.

Swells ease right back on Sun.

Strong fronts pushing into the Tasman early next week will see more moderate S swell pulses at least through the first half of next week. Building swells Mon, holding into Tues AM before easing. and. Expect revisions in size and timing but looks like definitive seasonal change has finally arrived. We may see another low develop in the Tasman later next week. Check back Wed to see how that prospect is shaping up.

Seeya then.