Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE swells Tues, building a notch Wed with light E-NE winds
• Winds tending E’ly on Thurs as trough of low pressure approaches
• Building E-E/NE swells Fri into the weekend 
• Winds shifting offshore on Sat extending in Sun with fun E/NE swells
• Small S swell pulse Mon as cut-off low drifts SE of the state
• Not much after that

Recap 

Tiny E/NE swells yesterday and today with small S swell yesterday to 2ft, fading into today. Winds have been light but are tending mod N-NE through this a’noon.

This week and next week (Nov25- Dec6)

Synoptically we are in a typical summer pattern as we head into the last week of spring. High pressure remains a constant in the Tasman, with a reinforcing cell ready to slide under Tasmania late week. A heat low over NW Australia and trough are linked to a cut-off low in the Bight which gets squeezed out by high pressure with a fetch feeding into it seeing developing E swells for NE Tas later this week. As a result, we’re looking at small NE windswells for Tasmania in the short run with sizier E swells medium term.

In the short run the fetch off the NSW coast remains off the central coast and as a result only small NE swells are expected for Tas, in the 1-2ft range through Tues building to 2-3ft into Wed as the fetch increases and moves southwards. A weak, troughy pattern sees light winds from the E-NE with morning land breezes.

By Thurs winds should shift more SE-E as the trough moves into the Tasman and high pressure ridges in under the trough. That will see winds from the SE-E at moderate paces and short period windswell from the same direction building into the 2-3ft range.

E’ly winds feeding into the cut-off low are aimed directly at NETas (see below) and will produce sizier swells into Fri- up into the 4ft range with onshore winds.

Source of swell late this week and into the weekend

Into the weekend and Sat looks good with sizey E and NE swells to 3-4ft under S/SE winds shifting offshore SW then W as the trough moves off the Island to the SE.

Offshore winds again on Sun with E/NE swell to 3ft, easing during the day.

Next week looks quieter with all the action early as the remnants of the trough of low pressure generate some small S swell to 3ft on Mon, easing into Tues with SW-S winds expected.

After that, small surf is expected for the rest of the week but tune in Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.