Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building NE windswell Sat PM, becoming very sizey Sun AM before easing

NE windswell leftovers on Mon with SW winds

• Small S swell likely Tues/Wed
• Better quality S swell pulse Thurs PM
• Small NE windswell likely Fri into next weekend

Recap 

Not much in the way of surf to recap with small NE swells to 1-2ft yesterday offering a just rideable wave and today easing right back to a 1ft of barely surfable E swell under S/SE winds tending E/NE in the a’noon. Plenty of swell energy expected over the weekend. 

This weekend and next week (Nov16- Nov22)

No great change to the weekend outlook. High pressure moving into the Tasman today strengthens over the weekend with a ridge along the east coast. We’ll see the NE flow ramp up on Sat as an approaching front and cut-off low really tightens the pressure gradient. That will see NE windswell build Sat from 2-3ft to 5-6ft in the a’noon under a fresh/strong NE flow.

Winds shift more N’ly through Sun, then NW-W/NW and we’ll see some real size as the fetch reaches peak strength through the morning. Expect size in the 8-10ft range, easing in the a’noon as winds shift offshore and the fetch gets shunted Eastwards.

NE fetch generates some real size Sat PM and Sun

A trough and front bring fresh offshore winds Mon, W/NW tending W then SW-S in the a’noon. Small leftovers from the NE supply some 2-3ft surf early with a small flush of S swell possible in the a’noon.

Small S swell persists into Tues, building a notch in the a’noon as a decaying fetch tracks past the state. Expect some 1-2ft surf early, building a notch in the a’noon under SW winds with a light SE-NE seabreeze in the a’noon.

Unfortunately, compared to Wednesday's notes, we’re not looking at any major low pressure development in the Tasman next week from the trough. Small leftovers from the S through Wed with light/mod SW tending S-SE winds.

We did mention a S groundswell on Wed and this now looks to be more substantial in the absence of a Tasman low.  A beefy fetch tracking through the lower Tasman Tues/Wed should see a swell front push through Thurs up in to the 3-4ft range with light S-SE breezes tending N-NE in the a’noon as high pressure drifts E of the island state.

Further ahead and we should see some small NE windswell by next Fri, extending into the weekend with high pressure in the Tasman and a troughy pattern remaining across the continent

We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!