Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swellTues holding Wed AM before easing with SW tending variable winds
• Better quality S swell pulse Thurs 
• Small NE windswell likely Fri into next weekend
• Not much on the radar for next week, small E/NE swells expected

Recap 

Sat saw building NE windswell up to 3-5ft under fresh NE winds. Size really ramped up Sun with surf to 6-8ft+ developing, cleaned up after lunch by offshore winds. Still pumping this morning with size to 4-5ft, easing, with offshore winds.

This week and next week (Nov18- Nov29)

We’ve got a sharp little front passing under Tasmania at present, with another front and parent low transiting the Tasman Tues/Wed. A large high is approaching from well south of the Bight and expected to occupy the Tasman from Thurs, with a more summer style wind pattern of  NE winds expected. We’ll see some small S pulses and NE windswell on the menu this week. 

In the short run todays front brings a small flush of S swell to 2-3ft tomorrow at S facing breaks with light winds, mostly S-SE breezes tending light N’ly in the a’noon.

That pulse holds into Wed morning before easing with light S-SE winds on offer as a front passes to the south and a high pressure system ridges in. 

That front brings a stronger pulse Thurs, up into the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches with light winds shifting E/NE then NE at mod paces as high pressure moves into the Tasman.

Source of S swell Thurs

NE winds establish Fri and with it, we should see some workable NE windswell to 2ft develop in the a’noon under mod breezes.

Into the weekend and we’ll see more small NE windswell to 2ft Sat under light N winds, shifting NW as a trough approaches.

Size eases into Sun with winds shifting S’ly as the trough moves through.

Next week and we’ll see a quiet first half under current modelling. High pressure in the Tasman slowly moves NE with a reinforcing cell slipping into the Tasman, bringing a weak spell of SE winds. 

The NE fetch looks to be too far north for Tas so we’re looking at minor E/NE swells to 1 occ. 2ft for the first half of next week.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it looks.