Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell flush Thurs
• Building NE windswell Sat PM, becoming very sizey Sun AM before easing
• NE windswell leftovers on Mon with SW winds
• Small S swell likely Tues/Wed
• Possibly sizier SE swell later next week depending on low pressure in Tasman, check back Fri for updates

Recap 

We saw a fun blend of S and E/NE swells to 2ft yesterday with light winds. Today is a notch smaller with NE swells to 1-2ft with light winds tending mod N’ly before a S’ly change.

This week and next week (Nov13- Nov22)

Still a very troughy, unstable pattern with a low pressure trough off the NSW Central coast moving south and an approaching trough/front expected to bring a S’ly change today, before a new high moves into the Tasman Fri. We’ll see that high quickly become dominant with an increasing N’ly flow over the weekend bringing sizey NE windswell to Tasmania. Troughiness next week does offer potential for low pressure development in the Tasman but we’ve got high model variability so confidence is very low in the outcomes. 

In the short run and not much on to wind out the working week. Small S’ly windswells Thurs in the 1-2ft range under S-SE winds so poor conditions. Fri sees SE winds shift E/NE with more onshore conditions and small windswells to less than 2ft.

Into the weekend we’re still expecting a rise in NE windswell Sat as high pressure moves into the Tasman and pressure gradients tighten as a front and cut-off low approach from the W. Expect freshening N-NE winds and size building from 3ft to 4-5ft in the a’noon with some bigger sets.

Sunday is looking very sizey indeed as the fetch ramps up with low end gales off the coast of Tasmania extending up towards Bass Strait and the Gippsland coast. That should see size in the 8ft+ range with fresh N’ly winds shifting NW through the day. As winds shift NW and the fetch moves away we should see an easing trend in platy but still offering very sizey surf.

Source of sizey NE windswell Sat into Sun

Next week and size drops quickly into Mon as a front sweeps across rthe state and the fetch moves out of the swell window. We should see some small 2-3ft leftovers, dropping below 2ft through the day with offshore winds.

Further ahead and a trough forms in the Tasman next week with a high moving in from the Bight. That should see a S’ly flow develop through Tues into Wed and possibly Thurs. We may see some SE-E/SE swell develop later next week if a low forms in the Tasman and drifts towards the South Island (EC resolution) or we may see small swells as the low forms further north.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.