Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and the cut-off low entering the Tasman this weekend or early next week.
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Winds may shift more N’ly through Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast later Thurs into Fri, bringing a spike in NE windswell.
Winds feeding into the southern flank of the low are well aimed at Tasmania and we’ll see more strong SE tending E/SE swell tomorrow.
That low is expected to slowly drift and dissipate through the week, maintaining elevated surf through to mid-week with a very slow easing trend in place and a pulse of E/SE swell Thurs.
A secondary front pushing into the Tasman coalesces with a deepening low near New Zealand and the system then retrogrades back into the Tasman over an already active sea state delivering powerful E/SE swell before taking up residency in the Central Tasman for a few days next week with a slow, slow easing in big swells expected.
Into the weekend and the low retrogrades back towards Tasmania over the weekend with plenty of size expected from the S/SE-SE.
The coming period will be dominated by south and then south-east swell energy.
There should be some fun small east peaks on the weekend, with some larger localised south swell for next week.
Sunday is a different story as a strong front joins the developing low, bringing a fresh S’ly flow and a building S swell in the a’noon.
At 6am the coastal low is tucked in very close to the NSW/Victorian border with gales aimed primarily at Gippsland and NE Tasmania generating huge E’ly swells for NETas. By midnight the gale force flow ceases and by tomorrow all the flow will be W’ly through Bass Strait.