Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Winds tending SE’ly on Thurs as trough of low pressure approaches with small NE swells and building short range SE windswell
• Building E-E/NE swells Fri into the weekend 
• Winds shifting offshore Sun with sizey E/NE swells
• Small leftovers Mon, easing quickly during the day
• Not much after that

Recap 

Tiny E/NE swells yesterday and today in the 1-1.5ft range with the occ. 2ft set offering just rideable waves with generally light winds now tending NE.

This week and next week (Nov27- Dec6)

Very little change since Monday’s notes with slow moving high pressure drifting towards New Zealand and a trough and cut-off low approaching from the Victorian inland and bight respectively. We’ll see an increasing SE-E flow aimed at Tasmania as winds feed into the cut-off low, generating E’ly swells for NETas into the weekend.

In the short run, we’ll see winds shift S-SE overnight as a trough moves offshore from the Gippsland coast and the cut-off low approaches from the western side of Bass Strait. Those winds should reach mod/fresh paces though the day, with an a’noon increase in SE windswell adding to small NE-E/NE swells to 2 occ. 3ft. 

SE winds then tend E’ly on Fri with short range SE-E swells building to 3ft during the day. 

Into the weekend and under current modelling we’d expect size to increase further as E’ly winds remain aimed at NETas. Sat should see a spike in E’ly swell to 4-5ft with onshore winds.

Through Sun that size should build further to 6ft+ and shift more E-E/NE before easing through the day. E’ly winds Sat should shift N’ly on Sun as the cut-off low slowly moves south of Tasmania, but expect some revisions on Fri. 

Source of sizey E/NE swell Sun as winds feed into low in Bass Strait

Clearing winds Mon as the system moves away look to tend W’ly before swinging variable as a trough remains off the Gippsland coast. Early E-E/NE swells to 2-3ft ease quickly through the day.

Not much for the rest of next week as weak, troughy winds in the Tasman and no real swell generating sources are on offer.

We’ll see how it looks on Fri but at this expect small 1-2ft surf at best from the NE-E/NE from Tues-Fri next week.

Seeya Fri.