Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building E-E/NE swells Fri into the weekend 
• Winds shifting offshore Sun with sizey E/NE swells
• Small leftovers Mon, easing quickly during the day
• Not much after that

Recap 

Tiny E/NE swells yesterday and today in the 1-1.5ft range with the occ. 2ft set offering just rideable waves with generally light winds now tending NE.

This weekend and next week (Nov29- Dec6)

No change to the weekend f/cast. We’ll see the wind flow strengthen on Sat as a large high slips in under Tasmania and multiple troughs and a cut-off low forming over the interior tighten the pressure gradient proximate to Eastern Tasmania. Winds tend SE at mod paces tomorrow then Easterly and freshen as a cut-off low approaches from the interior then Bass Strait. Expect size tomorrow to build from 4ft to 4-5ft during the day.

Size builds further into Sun as NE winds intensify into the cut-off low. We are looking at some real size- up in the 6-8ft range with some bigger sets possible. Early winds will be fresh/strong from the N-NE but as the day goes on and the system slides southwards we should see winds shift N/NW-NW. Size will ease quite quickly through the afternoon as the fetch moves away so by close of play we should be down to the 4-6ft range.

Easing swells into Mon but leftover NE swells still look to be in the fun 2-3ft range with light W-NW breezes tending variable in the noon.

Tues should see some small E/NE swell from winds in the Tasman with small 2ft surf on offer and light winds continuing.

Not much at all for the rest of the week with tiny 1-2ft surf at best from the E/NE offering a just rideable wave at open beaches.

Further ahead we may see a weak front late next week supply a small flush of S swell Fri or Sat.

The medium term is starting to look more muscular as move into the second week of summer. There are model suggestions of a stronger SE surge and potential tradewind band developing, potentially enhanced by a long, angled trough in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman. EC is suggesting a powerful low moving below the Tasman in advance of that, later next weekend which would generate some sizey S swell. At the moment that is way too far in the distance to have any confidence in but the fact models are starting to hint at these developments bodes well for a little more size medium term.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!