Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 1st April)

This week through next (Apr 2 - 11)

Following late last week’s good S/SW groundswell, the energy has eased away since the weekend.

A small pulse of mid-period S/SW swell is expected into this afternoon and tomorrow, generated by a weak polar frontal system projecting up across the Heard Island region late last week.

This swell will fade into the end of the week with the next increase in swell due on the weekend.

The swell is being generated by a strong polar frontal system that’s currently projecting towards Western Australia, with a healthy fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds due to produce a moderate + sized S/SW swell for later Friday but more so Saturday.

The swell should hold well into Sunday morning but will be on the decline, with early next week looking smaller again.

A funky mid-period S’ly swell is due Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, generated by a strengthening fetch of S/SE winds off south-west Western Australia. It looks small to moderate in size, grading bigger further west and will produce a good SE swell for the Maldives later next week (discussed in more detail below).

Otherwise a small, background S/SW groundswell for later week isn't expected to offer any real size, with better swell generators on the cards for the weekend starting the 12th. This will be in the form of a strong Southern Ocean frontal progression firing up to the south-east of South Africa and further east. More on this Thursday.

Local winds look variable ahead of weak sea breezes this period, with weak trades likely forming from the weekend.

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Maldives:

A fun spike of inconsistent SE trade-swell should be in the water today, with it due to slowly ease over the coming days thanks to the swell generating SE fetch being cut-off over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney cut off the flow of SE winds, but we’re now seeing a healthy fetch of strong S/SE winds aimed more in our southern swell window and this should produce some new mid-period S/SE swell for Saturday and Sunday, easing Monday.

Otherwise, S’ly swell energy across the southern atolls looks only small to moderate in size with some stronger groundswell energy due into later next week (check back Thursday).

As touched on in the Bali section, a great fetch of strengthening SE winds to the south-west of Western Australia should produce some inconsistent but fun sized SE swell for the middle to end of next week, coming in small to moderate in size. A peak is due Wednesday/Thursday after building Tuesday, easing Friday.

Local winds look generally variable this period favouring most spots.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small-moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for this afternoon to 4ft+ across exposed breaks, easing tomorrow and further into the end of the week.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell kicking later Friday, peaking Saturday to 6ft across exposed breaks, easing Sunday.

Small-moderate sized mid-period S’ly swell for later Monday and Tuesday morning to 3-5ft across exposed breaks.

Variable winds (locally offshore) ahead of weak sea breezes, with weak trades kicking in from the weekend.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small-moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow to 3-4ft across exposed breaks, easing into the end of the week.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell building Saturday to 4-6ft across exposed breaks later, easing Sunday.

Weak W/NW-NW winds this period.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing SE trade-swell from 3-4ft across exposed breaks tomorrow morning.

Small, inconsistent S/SE trade-swell for Saturday and Sunday to 3ft+, easing Monday.

Inconsistent SE trade-swell building Tuesday, peaking Wednesday/Thursday to 4ft across exposed breaks.

Small, inconsistent background S/SW swells this period either side of 3ft this period.

Variable winds.