South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 31st Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E/NE swell persists into Mon-Wed
• Sizey S swells building south of the border Mon with SW-S tending S/SE winds
• Sizey S swells Tues, easing Wed, favouring NENSW for size
• S’ly winds Tues, tending E’ly Wed before a S’ly change as trough exits the coast
• Long range S/SE groundswell showing Wed PM, holding Thurs, easing Fri (flukey and favouring NENSW)
• Light winds through Thurs and Fri
• Small leftovers Sat
• New S swell building Sun across NENSW, smaller in SEQLD
• Moderate S pulse Tues/Wed next week- favouring NENSW for size

Recap

Sat was a write-off for most of the region with strong NE winds and chunky NE swells. Only the Sunshine Coast saw offshore winds develop in the a’noon and a window of really fun waves in the 3-4ft range. Sunday saw widespread clean conditions under light offshore winds which tended light/variable in the a’noon. Chunky E/NE-NE swells ranged from 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast to 4-5ft south of the border. It was only the lack of quality sand banks which prevented Sun from being really, really good. Size temporarily eased off this morning into the 3ft range but S swells are already building across NENSW into the second half of the day under S’ly winds.

Chunky swells Sun morning

This week (Mar 31-Apr 4)

We have a powerful swell generating pattern in place with a deep low (993hPa) in the Tasman, supported by a large high (1033hPa) well to the south of the Bight. The intense pressure gradient between these two systems is producing gales to low-end storm force winds adjacent to the Illawarra coast, with a broader fetch of SE strong winds located further south. These winds will coalesce later today into a more organised fetch of S-SE gales as the system slowly tracks southwards then S/SE. As a result we’ll see elevated wave heights from the S-S/SE right into mid-week, augmented by some long range S/SE groundswell from another ice shelf fetch in the Ross Sea region adjacent to Antarctica. 

In the short run we’ll see S swell through tomorrow, likely building in size through the day as we see the benefit of the gales organising around the low today. Expect surf across S exposed breaks in NENSW from 5-6ft building into the 6 occ. 8ft range with bigger surf at S exposed bars. Smaller 3ft to 4-5ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. There’ll be some E-E/NE swell holding in the 2-3ft range from a lingering fetch in the Coral sea and Northern Tasman which will help out SEQLD. Early SW winds will tend S/SW through S then tend S/SE through SE or even E/SE in the a’noon with a moderating trend late in the day. 

Still sizey on Wed but coming down a little from the peak which should be Tues PM. Bigger boards likely still needed across NENSW with sets in the 6 occ. 8ft range early at S exposed breaks, slowly winding back through the day.  Much smaller waves at protected Points and in SEQLD where residual E swell holds 2-3ft surf and S swell wrap is of similar dimensions. Tricky winds Wed as another trough linked to tropical moisture approaches SEQLD. That’s likely to see a developing E or even NE feed before the trough exits the coast and winds swing SE-E/SE.  We may see more N’ly winds on the Sunshine Coast and a more variable flow from Coffs southwards. It will be one of those days to keep tabs on local winds.  Just as an add on- there may be some super long period S/SE swell showing late in the day across the MNC (occ. 3ft set) from the ice shelf fetch but it’s unlikely to stand out against the much stronger Tasman Sea swells- just in case you notice some extra long lines.

Thursday looks a better bet for that swell. The Tasman Sea swell will be waning, but still offering up 4-5ft sets in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, slowly easing. Long period S/SE swell adds in inconsistent 3ft sets. Winds should tend W/SW-SW early  as the trough clears the coast, tending to light/mod S’ly winds through the day- perfect for the points. 

Friday looks like a really nice mop-up day with a mix of long range S/SE and easing Tasman sea swells still offering a 2 occ. 3ft set early, easing  through the a’noon. Winds should be mint again with light offshores through the morning and a’noon seabreezes. A great end to a solid  week of waves.

This weekend (Apr 5-6)

The weekend should see the start of a series of frontal progressions pushing into the Tasman. 

Not much surf for Sat with small S’ly leftovers to 2ft or so, with offshore W-NW winds as a front pushes through Bass Strait and NE up towards Central NSW. Those winds should tend SW-S across the a’noon through NENSW.  A late kick in new S swell for the MNC can’t be ruled out, but we’ll see how the timing looks through the week.

Certainly by Sun there should be a new pulse of mid-range S swell in the water, likely in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches across NENSW, smaller 2 occ. 3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. Winds look to be from the SW-S early, tending S-S/SE through the day. 

Next week (Apr 7 onwards)

Strong fronts pushing into the Tasman early next week will see more moderate S swell pulses at least through the first half of next week. Easing swells Mon, back up later Tues into Wed at this stage. Expect revisions in size and timing but looks like definitive seasonal change has finally arrived. We may see another low develop in the Tasman later next week. Check back Wed to see how that prospect is shaping up.

Seeya then.