Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Not much to end 2024 and start 2025
• Small flush of S swell Thurs next week
• Small NE windswells developing Sat, persisting into Sun
• More small S swell Tues next week

Recap  

NE swells built yesterday to 2-3ft and persisted into this morning in the 3ft range before easing under offshore winds.

This week and next week (Dec30- Jan9)

Very weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral Seas as we count down 2024. Weak high pressure occupies most of the Tasman with a broad troughy area off the sub-tropical QLD coast directing a weak SE flow. Nothing happening in the South Pacific this week and a weak front and trough Thurs looks to bring a minor flush of short period S swell, which is the main swell source for NETas for the week. Further ahead we’ll see a developing N’ly flow over the weekend bring some NE windswell over the weekend. A trough next week tightens the pressure gradient along a developing high pressure ridge, with reasonable odds of some workable S/SE-SE swell mid next week.  Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see a low energy end to 2024 and start to 2025. 

Tiny surf Tues with light/variable winds as a weak, troughy area passes by the state.

Similar for New Years Day. Tiny surf with variable winds.

A trough and front brings a S’ly change o/night Wed into Thurs with mod/fresh S’ly tending S/SE’ly winds and an a’noon NE seabreeze. Modelling suggests a spike in short period locally generated swell from the same direction. No great quality expected but we should see surf build Thurs from 1-2ft to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks, smaller into more sheltered locations.

Surf then eases back to tiny again into Fri.

Source of NE windswell for the weekend

Sat looks like more energy as NE windswell starts to build in response to a strengthening N/NE flow as high pressure and an approaching trough combine (see above). We should see NE windswell build to 2-3ft during the day under a mod/fresh N/NE tending N-N/NW flow. Nothing amazing but surfable.

Easing NE swells into Sun.

Small NE windswell leftovers are on offer for Mon.

A front and trough Tues bring a S-S/SE change and an increase in swell from the S. Models are a bit divergent on outcomes but it’s likely it’ll be another quick up and down in short range swell of mediocre quality at this stage. We’ll pencil in 2ft for size at this stage and finesse as we go through the week. 

There is a chance some of the front will stall near the South Island and potentially be a source of SE-E/SE swell later next week. We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

Otherwise, back to small, insignificant swells for the second half of next week, likely small SE-E swells.

Seeya Wed for the latest f/cast notes.