Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Spike in S swell peaking Tues AM, easing quickly with S’ly winds
• Tiny swells Wed
• Small NE windswells building Thurs next week persisting  into the weekend
• Small into next week with another round of NE windswell from mid next week

Recap  

More tiny swells on Sat with NE winds freshening. That saw some workable NE windswell develop Sun in the 2-3ft range, easing into this morning with light winds before a gusty S’ly change. 

This week and next week (Jan6- Jan17)

The current synoptic situation has a Groundhog Day feel to it, with another very weak high pressure cell in the Tasman (1019hPa), directing a mod N’ly flow along the temperate NSW coastline. A front and trough brings a S’ly change to NETas today, with the trough now looking to stall and wash out on the lower end of the Mid North Coast.  On the other side of the trough we revert back to N’ly winds and small NE windswells, becoming sizier into the weekend. Our longer term outlook has fallen apart compared to Fridays notes. Read on for details. 

In the short run the S’ly flow related to the front generates a quick spike in S swell o/night and into tomorrow with size to 3-4ft at S facing beaches under a fresh S’ly flow which eases quickly as high pressure moves across the state and tends to light/variable seabreezes in the a’noon. Size eases quickly in the a’noon.

Not much for Wed with tiny surf and a light/variable flow which tends NE in the a’noon as high pressure moves into the Tasman. 

The N’ly fetch extends into Bass Strait and up the NSW South Coast through the week with small NE windswells developing into Thurs, reaching 2ft in the a’noon under a mod N/NE flow.

Similar for Fri with NE winds and surf hovering in the 2ft range through the day.

Into the weekend and the NE fetch remains in place as high pressure drifts towards the South Island. We should see a strengthening in local winds which whips up more size on Sat- up into the 3ft+ range under a mod/fresh N/NE flow. 

Source of NE windswell over the weekend

That size should hold into Sun morning with light winds before the fetch gets shunted away by the trough which brings a S’ly change. 

Small NE leftovers into Mon with S-SE winds as a new high moves into the Tasman.

We should see a couple of days of tiny surf with light winds before the next episode of NE windswell kicks in later next week.

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Wed.

Seeya then.