Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswells peaking over the weekend
• Small into next week with minor NE windswell Mon/Tues
• Another spike in NE windswell  Wed
• Possible S swell Fri as low moves into Tasman
• Possible L to XL E swells Fri into the weekend from infeed into low- low confidence so check back in Mon

Recap  

Small S/SE swells to 2ft yesterday under moderating winds have continued into today with light winds now tending N’ly and freshening. 

This weekend and next week (Jan10- Jan17)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure drifting towards New Zealand and a broad inland low maintain a mod E-NE flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard extending down to Tasmania.

We’ll see light/mod NE winds both days with small NE windswells to 1-2ft Sat, building a notch Sun with more consistently 2ft waves.

Into next week and early on we’ll see tiny waves through Mon and into Tues as weak pressure gradients in the Tasman generate light winds and tiny swells. Increasing NE windswells are on the table for Wed as a low approaches from the west and pressure gradients tighten off the NSW South Coast down to NETas. We’ll pencil in NE winds increasing and NE windswell building to 3ft during the day.

From there, outcomes become prone to very large error bars. The crux of it is the fate of the inland trough of low pressure as it approaches the Tasman. 

GFS suggests the inland trough moves Northwards, with a trough spawning a small low east of Tasmania and rapidly deepens o/night into Fri with strong winds to gales developing off the south coast and Bass Strait (see below). Under this scenario we would expect a small spike in new S swell Fri up into the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches. The low then washes out and becomes absorbed into the general trough of low pressure hovering in the inland. Local S swells rapidly ease Sat, then rebuild as an E’ly infeed into the low extends out towards the North Island through the Tasman. This would see a new E’ly-E/NE’ly swell fill in Fri and reach large levels over the weekend with an E’ly fetch aimed straight at Tasmania.

More low pressure then potentially forms off the QLD coast and in the lower Tasman later in the week. 

The EC prognosis is for a low off the Far South Coast to stall next to the coast with no real S’ly flow expected and a minor NE infeed initially, drawing out into the Tasman over the weekend and generating useful E/NE swells. 

With poor run to run and model to model consistency confidence is very low on outcomes. Check back Mon and keep fingers crossed one of the more surf-filled outcomes is still a live possibility.

Until then, have a great weekend!