Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 20th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Wednesday, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E/SE swell tomorrow with W/NW tending fresh N/NE winds
• Moderate sized E/NE swell kicking late tomorrow, peaking Wed AM with strengthening S/SW tending S/SE winds
• Building S swell Wed PM, easing Thu
• Better mid-period S swell Thu, easing Fri
• W/SW tending NE winds Thu, W/NW tending SE Fri

Recap

Saturday didn’t offer much in the way of surf while we saw building levels of E/SE-SE swell yesterday along with strengthening winds out of the north.

Today our better pulse of E/SE swell was a little undersized thanks to the fetch of SE winds projecting towards us on the weekend coming in a little weaker and less favourably aligned.

This week and weekend (Jan 21 - 26)

One swell down, another, better one to come.

While today’s swell is a little undercooked, the coming reinforcing E/NE swell for late tomorrow but more so Wednesday is on track. Tomorrow morning should still be fun with easing 3ft sets under a W/NW offshore ahead of gusty N/NE sea breezes.

The current swell was generated by SE winds projecting up on the southern flank of a broad low that formed in the Tasman Sea, while a secondary intensification of E’ly winds projecting towards us off of New Zealand yesterday and today should generate moderate sized E-E/NE swell for Wednesday.

Open beaches should come in at a good 4ft on the sets (mostly 3-4ft), easing into the afternoon and then down from 2ft to possibly 3ft on Thursday morning.

Winds on Wednesday look to strengthen out of the S/SW through the morning, shifting S/SE into the afternoon with Thursday seeing W/SW offshores ahead of NE sea breezes.

Now, Wednesday’s change looks to kick up a close-range S’ly swell to 2-3ft across the south magnets later, easing from 2ft on Thursday, but some reinforcing mid-period swell should fill in from a healthy polar low moving under us Wednesday morning.

This should maintain 2-3ft sets on the south magnets Thursday before fading Friday.

Following this the outlook is much slower so make the most of the coming days waves.