Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswells developing Sat wit mod fresh N’ly winds
• Persisting into Sun with a S’ly change early
• Spike in S swell expected Mon PM, peaking Tues with S’ly winds
• Easing swells Wed
• Small NE windswells building Thurs next week persisting  into the weekend
• Dynamic outlook medium term with possibly sizey to very large NE swells from week 31/1

Recap  

More tiny swells, close to flat yesterday in the 0.5-1ft range yesterday similar or marginally bigger today but still unsurfably small for most people. N’ly winds are starting to freshen today.

This weekend and next week (Jan3- Jan10)

No great change to the f/cast for the weekend. With high pressure moving NE into the Tasman we’ll see winds from the N freshen through Sat reaching mod/fresh paces in the a’noon. That should generate some workable NE windswell for tomorrow, building into the 3ft range through the a’noon. 

A trough Sun brings a S’ly change with winds from the SW-S quickly tending S-S/SE through they at mod paces. Leftover NE windswell to 2ft, eases through the day. 

We’ll see an unstable pattern to start next week with a weak high in the Tasman, stronger high in the Bight and a complex troughy area moving through the inland and Bass Strait between them along with a strong cold front. Variable winds will hold for Mon with a continuation of small  NE windswell likely to hold in the 1-2ft range. A S’ly change will be incoming, either early Mon or a’noon depending on which major weather model gets it right. 

The trough/front as the strong high moves E is likely to generate a fast rising spike in new short range S swell later Mon. 

Surf is likely to build into the 2-3ft range late Mon, bigger 3-4ft Tues across open S facing stretches. Winds hold mod/fresh S-S/SE Tues before easing so some shelter from these fresh breezes will be necessary to find a clean or semi-clean wave. 

We’re likely to see changes when we come back Mon but current modelling suggests the trough will stall in the Central/Northern Tasman with swell dropping back quickl from Tuesdays peak in size. By Thurs/Fri we’ll see a new NE flow develop with small NE windswell building Thurs and holding at fun levels into the weekend. 

Further ahead and we have a dynamic outlook on the cards. An inland low and trough - a hybrid monsoonal feature- looks to approach the NSW coast, with a strengthening NE infeed into the system (see below) likely to see some unseasonally large (possibly XL) NE swell into the new week 13/1. We may then see the low exit the coast and form a closed, large surface low in the Tasman. With a broad infeed of E/NE-E winds into the system that puts large E’ly swells on the radar for the majority of the Eastern seaboard later in the week. Way too early for specifics on size and timing with confidence low this far out, including over the event itself. Still, it’s good to finally have a decent swell on the radar.

We’ll flag it for now, and see what it looks like on Mon. 

Seeya then and have a great weekend!