High pressure (1031hPa) is slowly but surely moving into the Tasman in a NE direction, developing a N’ly flow extending from temperate NSW down to Bass Strait through today and tomorrow. The N’ly flow will be punctuated tomorrow by a cold front which brings W -SW’ly winds to the region and a small amount of S swell. A stronger frontal system now looks likely to be a bit delayed but stall nicely in the Eastern Tasman early next week and supply some useful E/SE swell.
Primary tabs
The remnants of a low/front near the South Island are lingering near the South Island through the short term with the next frontal system expected late this week. No major swell sources on the radar so lets look at a few bits and pieces on offer this week.
No great change to the weekend f/cast. A compact, robust low approaches from the W today and passes SE of the Island tomorrow. We’ll see small amounts of leftover NE windswell to 1-2ft get replaced by a small S swell of similar size.
The bifurcation between the sub-tropics and temperate regions increases through the end of the week with NE windswell extending down to NE Tas and E’ly tradewind swells building in the sub-tropics.
Once the dominant high enters the Tasman on Wed we’ll see a N’ly pattern start to establish, more typical of Spring/Summer, with some workable NE windswell associated with it.
A trough and cold front are being rapidly shunted southwards by a blocking high which is moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman and weakening. NW winds are still fresh and gusty across Bass Strait in response to a trough crossing the state, with further NW-W winds expected as another frontal system approaches over the weekend.
A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island. Fresh NW-W winds are then expected over the weekend before another series of fronts traverse the lower Tasman next week.
Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into NE part of Tasmania.
Sun still looks great. A Cook Strait fetch should generate a good pulse of E'ly swell, easing through the day.
We've got a fun mix of SE and E swells for the coming period, worth making the most of.