Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Possible minor NE windswell Thurs PM, holding Fri AM
• Small S swell Fri
• Small SE groundswell Sat/Sun with offshore winds
• Minor NE windswell possible Sun and Mon under strong NW winds
• More S swell likely Tues next week

Recap

S swell supplied 2-3ft surf at S exposed breaks yesterday with NW-W winds keeping it clean all day. Nothing much today, just a tiny signal of 0.5-1ft NE swell under NW winds. 

This week and next week (Jul 26 - Aug4)

We’ve still got a massive high pressure system (1037 hPa) moving over inland NSW, slowly weakening as it enters the Tasman Sea through tomorrow and over the weekend. A powerful front has passed through the Tasman, creating a pulse of long period S’ly groundswell. A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island. Fresh NW-W winds are then expected over the weekend before another series of fronts traverse the lower Tasman next week.

In the short run and NW winds kick up tomorrow as the high enters the Tasman and fronts approach from the west.  Not much on offer tomorrow- just a small tiny signal to 1ft or so, tending to NE windswell in the a’noon.

NE windswell should peak Fri AM in the 2ft range under fresh NW winds which tend W’ly through the day as a front passes over the state. Traces of S swell to 2ft in the water at S facing beaches.

Into the weekend and we’ll see a small signal of long period SSE-SE swell from a compact storm force low as it nears NZ. Not much size, just the odd 2ft set with continuing fresh NW winds.

Similar winds for Sun with small amount of NE windswell wrap from gale force NW winds out of Bass Strait. Similar fetches have yielded 2ft+ of surf so expect similar. 

Next week and Monday may see another episode of small NE swell as another gale force NW fetch pushes out of Bass Strait. Expect tiny surf early, tending to NE swell to 2ft in the a’noon.

A low passing under the state Tues with gale force SW winds should see a S swell build Tues PM into the 2-3ft range, holding Wed AM before easing with a continuing W’ly flow tending NW.

Source of S swell next week

End of next week looks quiet with swell sources drying up.

Check back Fri for the latest update and a last look at the weekend.