The following system expected Fri this week now looks much stronger and under current modelling is expected to be a significant source of sizey S swell, potentially with several large pulses
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S swells will be the dominant though easing force in the water through tomorrow, mostly mid period stuff whipped up by a proximate fetch of S-SSW winds generated by a front and trough of low pressure forming in the Tasman with some small longer period swell mixed in.
Return flow off the back of a retreating high is feeding N’ly winds into the trough line. We’re expecting a front to interact with the trough overnight Thurs to form a low pressure trough in the Tasman. This trough then absorbs another trough of low pressure moving south from the South Pacific islands to form a large area of low pressure near New Zealand
We’ve got a reasonably strong high (1032hPa) sitting in the Tasman, with NE winds aimed at Tasmania, slowly drifting NE and weakening as it does so over the next 36-48hrs with the last of a series of powerful storms tracking across the lower Tasman. In the absence of a high pressure ridge we’ll see N to NW’lies.
We may see some more local E/NE swell to 2ft fill in as winds feed into a trough off the Gippsland coast which drifts down towards Flinders Island.
Storm force low pressure systems tracking under the continent are favouring Victoria for direct swell but we’ll see some long period swells refracting back into the East Tas coast this weekend from this source.
The Tasman Sea is looking very benign to start the week with a large area of weak high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and extending into the Tasman directing a weak N’ly flow down the South Coast of NSW. A weak front and trough will bring a wind change tomorrow but with no significant swell. Next week looks a little more active.
No great change to the weekend outlook. Not much swell on offer unfortunately.
Make the most of the current small swell before it fades.
A frontal system forming in the Tasman Fri into the weekend now looks much more of standard system compared to Fri but will still produce a workable S swell Sat.