Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 20)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small combo of E and S swells Thurs with light onshore winds, cleanest early
• Slightly better quality S swell Fri under light N-NE winds
• Small NE windswells this weekend, bigger Sun
• Flukey long period S swell Sun
• Increasing NE windswells Mon, peaking Tues
• S’ly change due Wed
• Another strong high moving into the Bight next week suggests SE winds and windswell late next week

Recap

We saw a blend of S and SE swells yesterday to 3ft, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter but conditions were hampered by an onshore flow. Cleaner this morning under light winds but size has also eased with a few 2 occ. 3ft waves across open beaches offering a fun, but underpowered surf.

A small but fun blend for the beachies under light winds

This week (Nov 20-22)

A large but not especially strong (1029 hPa) high pressure cell is west of Tasmania and slowly moving E where it enters the Tasman and becomes very slow moving. That will be the dominant feature of our synoptic set-up for some time, with a classic summer wind signal of SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending NE through temperate NSW. There is quite a strong front tracking across the lower Tasman in advance of this high cell, along with a polar low,  which will send some useful S swells our way before the high sets up a blocking pattern, which is expected to be reinforced by another large high next week.

In the short run we’ll see light winds tomorrow morning, tending to light E/NE then NE seabreezes. A fun mix of E swell from the North Island and small S swell should offer some clean peaks to 2 occ. 3ft, definitely worth having a squizz at.

A stronger S pulse then fills in through Fri, with size peaking in the a’noon to 3-4ft at reliable S facing beaches. E swell will be easing in the mix through the morning. Early light NW-N/NW breezes tend N-NE in the a’noon at mod paces but S facing beaches should handle that no problems.

This weekend (Nov 23-24)

No great change to Saturdays outlook, which offers easing S swells through the morning, topping out at S facing beaches with the occ. 2ft set. Early NW breezes tend N-NE more quickly and freshen through the day. We may see some marginal NE windswell through the a’noon in the 1-2ft range offering a just rideable wave for the very keen.

Sunday offers more of the same wind wise, with the N-NE flow increasing even further and the proximate fetch to the NSW coastline whipping up NE windswell into the 2-3ft range through the a’noon. Models are also picking up a signal of long period S swell generated by the polar low tracking north of the ice shelf due south of Tasmania today and tomorrow. Most of this energy is aimed at South Pacific targets but we’ll see some long period sideband energy through Sun that should offer some flukey 2-3ft sets at reliable S magnets. Flukey source means an uneven distribution of energy so expect plenty of no shows across the coastline.

Next week (Nov25 onwards)

High pressure will be close to the North island early next week and we’ll see the maturity of the NE fetch off the NSW coast, which looks to offer workable NE windswell mixed in with a small signal of E/NE swell off the top of the high. Winds remain moderate/fresh N-NE through Mon and into Tues with size looking to hover around the 2-3ft range Mon, up a notch into the 3 occ. 4ft range Tues.

A S’ly change is on the cards for Wed as a trough moves up the coast. That offers potential for clean NE windswell around the change or after at protected locations. We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Following that another large high starts to ridge in. Under current modelling, with the high positioned to the south of Tasmania, we’d expect a firm ridge up the entire NSW coast with a strengthening SE tending E’ly flow towards the end of next week and building SE windswell through this period. 

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then.