Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S’ly groundswell wrap Tues , holding Wed AM before easing with offshore winds
• Possible minor NE windswell Thurs PM, holding Fri AM
• Small S swell Fri
• Small SE groundswell Sat/Sun with offshore winds
• More S swell likely Tues next week

Recap

Fun sized surf to 1-2ft Sat with a much stronger E’ly swell Sun to 4ft with mostly W’ly winds. Today has seen easing surf to 2ft with NW tending W’ly winds providing groomed conditions. 

This week and next week (Jul 24 - Aug4)

We’ve got a monster high pressure (1037 hPa) sitting on the edge of the Bight and moving slowly eastwards, maintaining a firm ridge up most of the Eastern Seaboard and W’ly winds across Tasmania. Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into NE part of Tasmania. Another frontal system then pushes into the Tasman Sea later this week and into the weekend. A typical winter week, let’s look at specifics. 

In the short run tomorrow will see some long period S swell generated by storm force winds as a front/low passes under Tasmania today. That fetch is better aimed at targets across the Tasman but radial spread from the source and refraction should see some energy at S facing beaches across NETas through tomorrow. Expect some long lines in the 3ft range through mid morn to a’noon, at S exposed breaks with clean conditions under W’ly winds which may tend W/SW for a while before ending up light and variable.

Size eases through Wed with some 2ft leftovers in the morning easing during the day under W-NW winds. Thurs looks to be a low point of the week with tiny leftovers to 1ft or so. Small chance of some minor NE windswell in the a’noon, check back Wed for an update.

Another front pushes up the east Coast of Tasmania on Friday (see below), bringing a SW change and a new a new S swell. We may see some small NE windswell Fri morning before surf builds to 2ft at S facing beaches during the a’noon.

Source of small S swell Fri

Into the weekend and small but long period SE swell from a deep low firing up halfway through the lower Tasman should see some inconsistent 2ft sets both days under NW-W winds Sat, tending NNW on Sun.

Further ahead and more S swell is on the menu for next week. Models suggest another front, possibly tied to a compact but powerful low near Tasmania Tues which means another round of S swell likely Tues/Wed next week. We’ll dial in specifics as we go along this week.

More frontal activity looks to be behind that, suggesting this mid-winter run of waves still has some legs to it.

Check back Wed for the latest update.