Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Peak in NE windswell Sat AM with winds turning offshore mid-morning
• Small S swell Sat PM, holding Sun AM before easing quickly 
• Easing surf next week wth a spell of tiny waves likely
• Another round of NE windswell likely Wed/Thurs next week

Recap

Small NE windswell to 1-2ft yesterday has continued into today at similar levels with NW winds tending N’ly and freshening.

This weekend and next week (Aug5 - Aug 11)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A compact, robust low approaches from the W today and passes SE of the Island tomorrow. We’ll see small amounts of leftover NE windswell to 1-2ft get replaced by a small S swell of similar size. W’ly winds will tend W/SW as the low passes by then W/NW again in the a’noon.

Sunday sees leftover S swell to 2ft or so in the morning, easing during the day and becoming tiny in the a’noon. Lighter W winds tend NW in the a’noon.

 Not much change expected for the outlook for early-mid next week.

Reinforcing high pressure moving towards and then East of Tasmania and a weak, troughy environment maintains a light/variable flow over the Island. 

No major swell sources on offer.

That troughy pattern is causing problems for weather models from mid next week so we may be up for major revision when we come back Mon. There’s lot of model to model variability and divergence between models.

We may see a developing N’ly flow Wed and possible workable NE windswell as the high drifts towards NZ and a trough approaches. That trough may move offshore late next week and maintain NE-E/NE swell with an onshore flow into the weekend.

Alternatively GFS suggests a weak, troughy pattern persisting across the coast and into the Tasman with no major swell sources into the weekend.

Les see how it shapes up on Monday.

Until then have a great weekend!