South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Fri Nov 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Workable tradeswells holding in at mod levels Fri-Sun under E’ly winds (more E/NE-NE south of Yamba)
• Small S swell in the mix Sat AM 
• S swell pulse may show Sun
• E’ly tradeswells hold in there next week, possibly boosting a notch mid week as trough of low pressure drifts down from New Caledonia
• NE winds all next week

Recap

Another day of E’ly tradeswells to around 3ft, with low quality due to SE-E winds, more E-E/NE on the MNC. There’s some workable options on the Points along with some very junky beachies for the very keen.  Nothing amazing, but definitely some fun(ish) waves on offer.

A few peelers on the Points has been about the best of it

This weekend (Nov 23-24)

No great change to the weekend outlook. Slow moving high pressure is drifting in the Central Tasman with a classic summer wind signature of NE winds along temperate NSW, tending more SE-E in the sub-tropics. A broad but weak E'ly tradewind fetch occupies the Coral Sea, producing some workable E'ly swell.

So we’ll see onshore winds both days, SE tending E’ly across SEQLD down to Byron, more E tending E/NE south of there. 

Winds on Sun will tend more E’ly across the board, E/NE-NE on the MNC.

No change to the surf outlook either, E’ly tradeswell holds in the 2-3ft range both days, although the signal looks a little weaker on Sun it shouldn’t make a material difference to your plans. 

Basically, if you have managed to find a rideable wave over the last couple of days, continue on through the weekend. 

Backbeaches on the MNC may offer a slightly better quality option Sun as winds shift more NE but best keep expectations pegged fairly low. 

We’re still tracking a very flukey, but long period S swell for Sun, but apart from a few select locations across the MNC it’s unlikely to provide much in the way of a surfable option through the region. Some exposed points on the North Coast may see some sets but they are likely to be onshore and very ratty. 

Next week (Nov25 onwards)

High pressure is still in the Tasman early next week, slowly drifting towards the North Island, with a N-S angled trough approaching from the interior. A trough of low pressure centred around New Caledonia looks to amplify the trade-wind flow in that area, moving southwards early next week, although with low confidence as to it’s strength as it does so.

Meanwhile, the E-NE flow along the sub-tropical coast looks to remain entrenched with the trough and reinforcing high resetting that flow. 

We’re looking at a week of N-N/NE winds under current modelling with E swells hanging around in the 2-3ft range (with a few ups and downs). 

Depending on how the trough of low pressure drifting down from New Caledonia behaves we may see some better quality E/NE-E swell build in over that, through Wed/Thurs, although that timing may change. 

EC has the more bullish outlook suggesting some 3ft surf (possible 4ft sets) while GFS has the system weakening with only a few 2 occ. 3ft sets.

We’ll see how it looks over the weekend and report back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!