Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE groundswell Sat/Sun with offshore winds
• Minor NE windswell possible Sun and Mon under strong NW winds
• More S swell likely Tues next week
• Stronger NE windswell expected Thurs/Fri next week

Recap

S swell supplied 1-2ft surf at S exposed breaks yesterday with NW winds keeping it clean all day. Nothing much happening today, just a tiny signal of 1ft NE swell under NW winds. 

This weekend and next week (Jul 28 - Aug4)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. A trough and cold front are being rapidly shunted southwards by a blocking high which is moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman and weakening. NW winds are still fresh and gusty across Bass Strait in response to a trough crossing the state, with further NW-W winds expected as another frontal system approaches over the weekend.

Small NE windswell wrap should provide a few 2ft waves through Sat morning before easing as NW winds tend more W’ly in the a’noon. Small amounts of SE groundswell are still expected with inconsistent 2ft sets, same again Sun morning before easing.

Another gale force NW surge out of Bass Strait o/night into Sun see another small NE windswell wrap a notch bigger with 2-3ft surf expected Sun.

We may see that pattern even repeat Mon as the next front drives another gale to severe gale force NW fetch out of Bass Strait on Mon. Expect another round of small NE windswell wrap on Mon, up into the 2-3ft range.

Stronger S swell then arrives Tues as a powerful fetch of severe gales rushes through the lower Tasman (see below). Although not ideal for NETas swell should wrap in in the 2-3f range during the day under W/SW winds which tend W-NW again in the wake of the front. Swell eases rapidly from this source on Wed.

Source of S swell pulse Tues

High pressure moving into the Central Tasman Tues next week should see a more typical N’ly fetch develop off the South Coast, with building NE windswell later Thurs, into the 2ft range. The fetch looks to strengthen o/night with a peak in NE windswell to 3-4ft on Fri expected under NW tending W’ly winds.

Further ahead and looks like easing swells and a quiet weekend as high pressure moves over the state into next weekend.

That’s a long way off though so let’s see how it’s shaping up Mon.

In the meantime, have a great weekend!