South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Wed Nov 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell mix with SE-E/SE swell Wed under SE winds
• Mod SE winds Thurs/Fri in SEQLD tending more E’ly on Fri
• Winds more E-E/NE south of Yamba
• Small E/SE swell in the mix Thurs
• Building tradeswells from Thurs, holding in at mod levels Fri-Sun under E’ly winds
• S swell pulse in the mix Fri/Sat
• E’ly tradeswells hold in there next week, likely rebuilding later next week

Recap

Small clean leftover NE windswell offered a fun 2ft wave yesterday morning before a S’ly change pushed through with winds tending SE and freshening through the a’noon wiping out most options. SE winds are with us again today at moderate paces with building SE-E/SE windswells offering small peelers on the Points and very junky onshore surf at open beaches. Low quality but considering the dire recent past, offering up some surfable options.

Very grovelly point waves on offer today, with more size incoming

This week (Nov 20-22)

A large but not especially strong (1029 hPa) high pressure cell is west of Tasmania and slowly moving E where it enters the Tasman and becomes very slow moving. That will be the dominant feature of our synoptic set-up for some time, with a classic summer wind signal of SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending NE through temperate NSW. There is quite a strong front tracking across the lower Tasman in advance of this high cell, along with a polar low,  which will send some useful S swells our way before the high sets up a blocking pattern, which is expected to be reinforced by another large high next week.

In the short run there’s no change to the outlook, SE winds at mod/fresh paces in SEQLD and down to about Byron Bay. We’ll see those winds shift more E/SE-E from Byron southwards, tending more E-E/NE on the MNC. 

Short range E/SE swell will be dominant into and over the weekend. We’ll see size in the 2-3ft range tomorrow with some better quality E swell low down in the signal offering sets to similar size. Basically, it’s small surf on the Points in SEQLD and NENSW with some onshore surf on the beachies for the keen. 

Same again Fri but we’ll see some S swell show across the MNC to North Coast later in the day. Size in the 2-3ft range will be hard to utilise due to the prevailing onshore flow and not much of that S swell will swing into the north facing Points.

This weekend (Nov 23-24)

No great change to the weekend outlook, which sees dominant high pressure in the Tasman and a firm ridge up the sub-tropical coast and broad fetch of E-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea. Winds will tend more E’ly across the board on the weekend, NE south of Ballina-Yamba so keep expectations pegged low for quality. Even the Points are likely to be fairly scuffed up by the wind.

However, there will be some swell to work with. 

Saturday sees a mix of S swell to 2-3ft and dominant E/SE-E swell to 3ft.

Very similar for Sun. Models are suggesting some long period S swell in the mix from a polar low but it’s highly unlikely to be of much use with the prevailing onshore flow and dominant E swell signal. Nonetheless, perhaps on the MNC at backbeaches some sets from the S to 2-3ft in the a’noon may offer surfable options.

Next week (Nov25 onwards)

High pressure will be close to the North island early next week and we’ll see the maturity of the trade fetch in the Coral Sea as it becomes focussed around New Caledonia and into the South Pacific slot. That typically sees wave quality improve as wavelength draws out. Size won’t vary much with sets to 3ft or so continuing Mon into Tues. Winds will be tending more NE across the board, with lighter morning breezes offering up chances for some fun beachies, then backbeaches once the N’ly gets up.

A S’ly change is on the cards for later Wed or early Thurs as a trough moves up the coast. That offers potential for clean E’ly tradeswell around the change or after at protected locations. We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Following that another large high starts to ridge in. Under current modelling, with the high positioned to the south of Tasmania, we’d expect a firm ridge up the entire NSW coast with a strengthening SE tending E’ly flow towards the end of next week and building SE windswell through this period. As well as another extended tradeswell event, with the possibility of something juicier if we get any tropical developments. We are starting to see troughiness and instability across the South Pacific Convergence Zone from the Solomons down to Fiji, so we’ll keep a close eye on this area going forwards. Nothing concrete on the radar yet.

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then.