Elongated high pressure is moving into the Tasman with an approaching trough, front and cut-off low expected to tighten the pressure gradient leading to freshening N’lies from Boxing Day and some developing NE windswell.
Primary tabs
In the short run, we’ll see a wintry type of pattern develop with strong SW winds tending S/SW-S as a low moves east of Tasmania.
O/night Sun into Mon we’ll see a low form off the Gippsland Coast and begin to deepen rapidly through the morning.
A small spike in short range S swell will be reinforced by better quality SE-E/SE swells later this week.
We’ll see some swell from this pattern, first from the initial short range S swell and then some better quality S/SE swell as the surface low retrogrades from near the South Island back into the Tasman.
That sets up for a solid spike in NE windswell through Mon as high pressure moves NE and a trough approaches.
A deep low (962hPa) is currently well to the SW of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman, although being shunted to the SE as it does so. We’ll see some S’ly groundswell from this source.
There is a deep low expected to scoot through the lower Tasman, weakening as it does so which may offer some flukey S swell at S swell magnets Thurs/Fri.
There’s really nothing of interest at all next week with surf remaining tiny right into next weekend.
Once the new high sets up shop in the Tasman we’ll see the N-NE flow which has been a constant for a month reset until a front brings a W’ly change on the weekend. No major swells ahead as the pattern of weak, mobile high pressure continues but there’ll be some windows of opportunity with small NE windswell and minor flushes of S swell.