Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny waves likely for Tues
• Minor NE windswell Wed PM, Thurs AM
• Minor S swell Fri
• Stronger S swell Sun/Mon
• Few small options next week, all flukey so check back Wed

Recap

Not much surf over the weekend. Small amounts of S swell to 1-2ft Sat with offshore winds eased back to 1ft or so on Sunday. Today is tiny/flat with a light/variable flow.

This week and next week (Aug7 - Aug 17)

Another large high (1034hPa) is currently moving offshore from Southern NSW into the Tasman, with a long, NW-SE angled trough now moving offshore and towards the North Islands. The remnants of a low/front near the South Island are lingering near the South Island through the short term with the next frontal system expected late this week. No major swell sources on the radar so lets look at a few bits and pieces on offer this week.

In the short run and tiny surf continues through Tues and into Wed. Freshening N’lies Wed PM should whip up some small NE windswell into the 2ft range in the a’noon, persisting into Thurs at similar sizes before easing later Thurs as winds shift NW-W then W/SW-SW as a front pushes past the Island.

No great S swell is expected from this front, just a minor increase in S swell to 1-1.5ft on Fri.

Into the weekend and Sat looks tiny with just a minor amount of S swell wrap and NE windswell to 1-1.5ft under W’ly winds.

A stronger front tied to a polar low look to generate a larger S swell for Sun, up into the 3ft range at S facing beaches during the day but SW winds will tend SSW and be an issue.

Nothing major on the radar next week. The remnants of the weekends front/low look to linger near the South Island so we should see some small S-S/SE swell persist into Mon at least, possibly Tues. An easing trend looks to be the most likely outcome though.

Both major models are still struggling to resolve troughiness in the Tasman. We may see a Cook Strait fetch develop Tues/Wed (see below) with potential for a small E/NE swell Thurs. 

EC is interested in a weak low in the Central Tasman during the same time frame that may be good for some small E/SE-E swell. Nothing worth getting frothed up about.

We’ll keep tabs on it and come back Wed and see how it’s shaping up.