Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor NE windswell Wed PM, Thurs AM
• Minor S swell Fri
• Stronger S swell Sun/Mon
• Fun pulse of SE-E/SE swell likely Tues PM, Wed

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday with variable winds has tended to small amounts of NE windswell today in the 1-1.5ft range with N/NW winds.

This week and next week (Aug9 - Aug 17)

High pressure (1031hPa) is slowly but surely moving into the Tasman in a NE direction, developing a N’ly flow extending from temperate NSW down to Bass Strait through today and tomorrow.  The N’ly flow will be punctuated tomorrow by a cold front which brings W -SW’ly winds to the region and a small amount of S swell. A stronger frontal system now looks likely to be a bit delayed but stall nicely in the Eastern Tasman early next week and supply some useful E/SE swell.

In the short run and NE windswell peaks o/night in the 1-1.5ft range with NW wind shifting W/SW-SW in the a’noon. There should be a just rideable wave before it does so.

Tiny S swell on Fri supplies some marginal 1ft surf under SW winds which shift NW again during the day.

Not much on offer Sat as strong W’lies nuke the Island.

Those W’lies are associated with a stronger front which forms a low well to the south of the Island o/night Sat and sees stronger S swell build through Sun. Expect surf up into the 3ft range through the day but winds will be from the south, dramatically curtailing wave quality at most spots. 

Improved outlook for next week as the weekends front stalls around a trough line in the central/eastern lower Tasman and forms a compact low, possibly even retrograding NW (see below) Under current modelling that suggests a nice pulse of S/SE swell  Wed.

The stalled low supplies fun S swell through Mon with 2-3ft surf and light/variable winds as high pressure passes over or just south of the state.  Surf eases Tues with winds tending N’ly.

A new pulse of SE-E/SE swell then looks to arrive later Tues or Wed with size to 3ft or so.

If winds behave we should see some really fun waves mid next week.

Longer term and the troughy pattern may be resolved later next week by an approaching low/front which looks to bring typically strong NW’ly winds for August, perhaps with a S swell as it enters the Tasman Sea.

Check back Fri for the latest.