South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday November 20th)

Best Days: South Coast tomorrow morning, Friday and Saturday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building tomorrow, peaking into the PM, easing slowly Fri
• N/NE-NE tending E/NE then E/SE-SE winds tomorrow
• N/NE tending fresher N/NW Fri, then variable ahead of a late change
• Small S/SW swell Sat, easing Sun
• N/NW tending moderate W/NW winds Sat, variable into the PM before possibly going onshore later
• Variable winds Sun, tending fresher S'th into the PM
• Small-moderate sized mid-period SW swell Mon with S/SW winds
• S/SE winds Tue, then mod-fresh SE Wed/Thu

Recap

The Mid Coast continued to offer fun 1-2ft surf all of yesterday, full in the morning and a touch wind affected but still fun through the afternoon while today we’ve got tiny leftovers to 1-1.5ft.

The South Coast was OK most of yesterday with fun 3ft waves under a light to moderate E/NE breeze, while today there’s still a bit of swell but with less favourable conditions thanks to a fresher easterly wind.

This week and weekend (Nov 21 - Dec 1)

Conditions should improve across the South Coast from tomorrow as high pressure moves in from the west, allowing winds to swing offshore.

As Ben touched on earlier in the week, we’ve got a strong though inconsistent pulse of SW groundswell due to fill in through tomorrow, generated by a strong polar low that fired up to the south-west of Western Australia.

The swell is due to build through the day and peak into the afternoon with the morning likely to come in at 3ft across Middleton before reaching 4ft into the afternoon while the swell won’t really favour the Mid Coast with tiny 1ft waves day.

A N/NE-NE wind should create fairly decent conditions across the South Coast during the morning, shifting E/NE later morning ahead of E/SE-SE sea breezes, but not overly strong.

Friday looks to be the pick as the swell starts to back off from 3ft+ across Middleton under moderate N/NE tending fresher N/NW winds ahead of a trough. Winds will ease ahead of a change that’s due late afternoon, so there’ll be plenty of time for two if not three surfs if you’re up for it.

Into the weekend, we’ve got a small pulse of mid-period S/SW swell due Saturday, but this will just slow the easing trend across the South Coast. The source is a south-east tracking low that will intensify while moving closer towards Tasmania tomorrow. This is late in our swell window and will only provide 2ft+ surf across Middleton during the day, easing back from 1-2ft on Sunday. The Mid Coast will become tiny to flat.

Winds on Saturday are tricky thanks to another trough moving through the region. We’re expecting early N/NW winds to shift W/NW but then become variable and remain that way until late afternoon when they might tip onshore.

Variable offshore winds should create clean conditions again Sunday morning before winds freshen from the S’th into the afternoon.

Looking at next week, and a trough looks to bring a S/SW change next Monday along with a small pulse of mid-period SW swell, generated by another south-east tracking polar low.

No major size is due with winds shifting S-S/SE on Tuesday, the Mid Coast will become cleaner but be tiny. Unfortunately SE winds look to dominate Wednesday and Thursday so with this in mind, the coming days and weekend are the pick of the period.

Longer term it looks like a strong polar low firing up to the south-west of Western Australia will bring a moderate sized pulse of SW groundswell next weekend, more on this Friday.