More small NE windswell pulses on offer next week, but the zonal flow is expected to strafe Tasmania with strong and gusty W-W/NW winds for most of next week so surfing conditions will be rugged.
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A deeper fetch now operating near New Zealand longitudes is better aimed at Pacific targets (some to Fiji, most to Tahiti) with some strong sideband S/SE groundswell due tomorrow.
Tues should see better quality S-S/SE groundswell fill in from the deeper fetch in New Zealand longitudes.
Plenty of size Sun as the Tasman Sea trough of low pressure gets supported by a deeper southerly fetch associated with a complex polar low.
Winds off the Tasmanian coast and up into Bass Strait are tending more N’ly over the short term producing some small NE windswell.
No change expected to the broad pattern next week with strong high pressure moving into the Tasman and a broad, deep E’ly fetch developing through the Coral Sea, with an embedded trough. That will be too far north to generate any meaningful swell for NETas under current modelling.
Zonal fronts under Tasmania are combining with high pressure over the continent to supply W’ly ridging.
Zonal fronts below Tasmania will bring plenty of W’ly ridging but not much surf so we’ll see tiny surf develop this week.
We’re now on the backside of this incredible easterly swell event, so expect size to abate slowly through the weekend.
That will be offset by a developing fetch of gales off the North Island, which will supply reinforcing energy from the E-E/NE Fri over the weekend.