Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor N’ly windswell Tues 
• Small S groundswell wrap Tues with N’ly tending NW winds
• S swell spike Wed with NW winds tending SW in the a’noon
• More S swell Thurs , building into Fri with easing winds 
• Building NE windswell Sat, peaking Sun at sizey levels
• Possible quality E/NE swell next week as low/trough hovers in Tasman, check back Wed for updates

Recap

Small S swells over the weekend with Sat seeing 2ft sets at S facing beaches, smaller into Sun and mod/fresh NW-W winds both days. Similar winds today with small surf to 1ft, building a little from the S today as a strong front passes to the S.

This week and next week (Sep23 - Oct4)

We’ve got a really dynamic outlook this week as a strong high drifts across from the Bight and a trough drawing in tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean moves across the country and eventually enters the Tasman Sea, with a front and long angled trough and possible surface low expected to form in the Tasman late this week. Run to run and between model consistently is still poor but odds are firming sizey S swells later this week. Currently we have some strong frontal activity passing under Tasmania. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see high pressure move into the Tasman NE of the Island, with winds shifting N’ly and freshening during the day. S swells to 2-3ft early, will ease and we’ll see some small NE windswell to 2ft in the a’noon.

Winds will shift NW on Wed and then fresh SW-S as a front pushes past the state. A blend of mid period and longer period S swells will see 2 occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches.

By Thurs we’ll see another strong front pass to the south and fresh SW winds with a mix of S swells to 3ft at S facing beaches.

A deep trough and low move north of NSW on Fri with high pressure moving over or just to the north of Tasmania. That should see settled conditions and light winds develop with sizey S swell to 4ft from Thursdays front, easing during the day.

Into the weekend and we’ll see freshening N’ly winds as high pressure moves E of Tasmania. Small to start Sat with building NE windswell to 2-3ft in the a’noon under freshening N-NE winds.

That fetch looks to persist into Sun with size building to 3-5ft during the day and winds tending NW in the a’noon as a trough moves over the NE of the state.

Low confidence in the outlook next week due to low model skill in resolving the trough or low in the Tasman next week. EC has the trough lingering  in the Tasman with a broad infeed suggesting plenty of ENE’ly’ly swell through the first half of next week with possible offshore winds from the return flow around the trough.

GFS has a less bullish outlook with a weaker surface low drifting towards New Zealand and a smaller amount of ENE’ly swell.

Either way we should see some quality waves next week from the ENE’ly angled swell with potentially good winds.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.

Seeya then.