South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

•  S groundswell showing across NENSW Fri PM, persisting into Sat with light winds
• Easing S groundswell through Sat with light E’ly winds
• E’ly winds tending SE in SEQLD on Sun with small E’ly swells developing
• Local E’ly swells up a notch Mon/Tues with SE winds tending NE on Tues
• Sharp spike in S swell expected later Wed, Thurs for most of the region
• Rebuild in S-S/SE swell possible Sat
• Long range E swell filling in Thurs/Fri next week
• Closer range E/SE swell on track for Thurs/Fri
• Tracking Coral Sea area medium term for low pressure development- check back Mon for latest 

Recap

Small S-SE swells held a surfable signal yesterday in the 2ft range with the occ.3ft set at NENSW S swell magnets -mostly tiny surf to a foot or less in SEQLD. Size has eased back today with 1-2ft surf at NENSW S swell magnets, tiny elsewhere. A S’ly groundswell which showed strongly in Central NSW should fill in across NENSW this a’noon.  Conditions were clean early under light winds with S’ly winds clocking E’ly in SEQLD and winds tending more NE’ly in NENSW.

Small blend of S-SE and NE swells on offer this morning

This weekend (Dec14-15)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Light E’ly winds are on offer, tending more NE’ly in NENSW. We should see a light/variable flow for the early. S’ly groundswell still shows 3ft sets at S facing beaches before easing later in the day with smaller E swell to 1-2ft elsewhere. 

Winds shift more SE in SEQLD into Sun, trending more E’ly in NENSW as a pair of troughs form, one off the SEQLD coast and one due E of Yamba. We’ll see small surf to 1-2ft early, with a little bump in short range E’ly swells to 2 occ. 3ft in the a’noon from winds feeding into those troughs.

Next week (Dec16 onwards)

Short range E swells boost a notch into Mon as high pressure slides into the Tasman. Nothing major but the fetches are local and well aimed so we should see surf in the 3ft range widespread across the region under SE-E winds, light enough in the morning for some more options than just the points.

We’ll see similar size on Tues with winds shifting NE through the day.

 A trough brings a sharp and vigorous S’ly change Wed. We should see light winds in advance of the trough which looks to be across Coffs easily morning, mid morning through Yamba-Ballina and later a’noon up to Tweed-QLD border. Depending in timing we should see a rapid spike in new S swell across the MNC, possibly extending up to the border late a’noon. We’ll finesse timing on Mon.

Latest model runs have amplified this trough and a resulting trough of low pressure in the Tasman. There’s still some model divergence to get through so expect some revisions but odds are firming off a sizey S tending S/SE swell event from Thurs, as the trough deepens in the Central Tasman. 

Under best case (GFS) scenarios we’ll expect a steep rise in S swell Thurs, up into the 4-6ft range under fresh S tending S/SE winds. 

That initial peak then eases into Thurs before a strong new peak in S/SE swell Sat as the trough forms a surface low in the central Tasman and strong winds to gales are aimed back at Central NSW. 

We’ll pencil in surf rebuilding to 4-5ft either later Fri or into Sat depending on the timing and evolution of the low.

Keep in mind, the lower case scenario (EC) which suggests a similar initial spike in S swell Wed before an easing Thurs then a more modest rebuild later Fri or Sat. 

Either way, there should be some juice in the water later next week. Winds look to tend lighter SE-E on Fri and then tend variable-NE on Sat.

Couple of E swell sources in the water during this time frame as well. First, from a distant low forming this weekend in Tahitian longitudes which supplies some very inconsistent long range energy into next weekend.

Added to by a low forming north of the North Island Tues which adds some small E swells into the mix Thurs/Fri.

Both of those sources will be overshadowed by stronger, Tasman sea swells but they definitely will add to the wave energy in the mix.

Longer term both major models are still toying with low pressure development in the Coral Sea so a local E swell is still a live possibility going into the Xmas week, although latest runs have eased off on any potential cyclogenesis. 

Let’s see how they look on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!