Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More S swell Thurs , building into Fri with easing winds 
• Building NE windswell Sat, peaking Sun at sizey levels
• Small but  quality E/NE swell next Mon/Tues week as trough moves south in Tasman
• More S swell likely Thurs/Fri next week

Recap

Small S swells over the weekend with Sat seeing 2ft sets at S facing beaches, smaller into Sun and mod/fresh NW-W winds both days. Similar winds today with small surf to 1ft, building a little from the S today as a strong front passes to the S.

This week and next week (Sep25 - Oct4)

Model consistency has improved to the point where we now have reasonable confidence over short term outcomes of a dynamic synoptic situation set to unfold over the next 24-36hrs. A robust front linked to a deep low is expected to pass over Tasmania and migrate up the southern NSW coast o/night and into the wee hours, with a surface low expected to form off the North Coast as a trough interacts with the front. 

In the short run we’ll see S swell develop o/night from the front with size to 2-3ft, easing the a’noon. Morning SW winds look to tend NW/SW as a trough area lingers around the NE of the state.

Swells from a deeper fetch associated with the polar low under the front bring longer period S swells on Fri to 3-4ft at S facing beaches with W’ly winds tending W/NW at moderate paces in the a’noon.

Into the weekend and we;’ll see high pressure move NE of Tasmania into the Tasman with a N-NE flow developing down from Bass Strait to the Island. Small S swells initially on Sat to 2ft with some developing N/NE windswell to 2ft in the a’noon.

By Sunday size from the N/NE should increase into the 3-4ft range as  winds in the fetch increase and the fetch becomes broader. Early winds from the N will tend more NW in the a’noon, possibly W/NW as the fetch is shunted eastwards by an approaching front.

Into next week and we’ll see a couple of days of small but fun surf from the E/NE to start the week as winds feeding into a decaying low/trough moves south through the Tasman. Only small 1-2ft on Mon but by Tues we should see some 2 occ. 3ft sets under NW-W winds, fresh and gusty at times.

A front passing into the Tasman Wed (see below) looks to bring some S swell later Wed into Thurs.

Models are still pretty divergent so we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.