Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Tiny on Thurs
• Flukey S groundswell Fri with NE winds
• Easing S swell Sat with a S’ly change in early
• Tiny surf into Sun- mostly S swells favouring S facing beaches with flukey winds
• Not much for the start of next week, more low energy surf 
• S’ly change due Tues next week, possibly small short range S swell building Tues PM
• Better odds for some S swell later next week as fetch forms in Eastern Tasman
• Small, long range E-E/SE swell in the mix later next week
• Possible S swell Xmas week- low confidence, check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

A S’ly change kicked in early making a mess of most beaches but whipping up some short range S swell to 2-3ft. Similar size today with mostly wind affected conditions under S-S/SE winds. There are some small, grovelly waves on offer at more sheltered locations for the keen. 

Nothing fancy but rideable at more sheltered locations

This week (Dec 11-13)

A trough of low pressure is sitting off the North Coast, having moved northwards yesterday, bringing S’ly winds to the sub-tropics and temperate areas. As this system moves Eastwards and dissipates, weak high pressure moves into the Tasman. A deep low (962hPa) is currently well to the SW of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman, although being shunted to the SE as it does so. We’ll see some flukey S’ly groundswell from this source. The weak, troughy pattern and mobile high pressure systems extends into next week under current modelling. There are a couple of funky swell sources on the radar during this time frame.

In the short run we’ll see winds shift back to the N/NE through tomorrow as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. Early winds should be light NW-N before reaching mod speeds in the a’noon as the clock around N/NE. Only tiny surf expected, mostly stray S’ly swell trains in the 1 occ. 2ft range at S swell magnets. 

By Fri we should see long period S swell fill in across the region. It’s a flukey source in terms of position in the swell window, but a strong fetch and periods will be long (15-17 seconds). That could see 3-4ft surf at select S facing beaches with some outliers on direct S facing reefs. Expect no shows as well. Winds look flukey around a troughy area hovering around the region so expect some light/variable periods before NW-N breezes then tend NE. We may see a weak S’ly flow extend up to the Illawarra in the morning depending on how the trough behaves. Minor NE windswell looks to offer up a 1-2ft waves away from S facing beaches. We may see a S’ly change from the trough just reach Sydney by close of play (after dark more likely).

This weekend (Dec14-15)

S’ly winds will be in across the region during Sat morning, lighter SW inshore north of the Harbour. We’ll see those winds shift around to the E through the day.

Sunday winds look tricky as the trough moves around, potentially moving north and bringing a more S’ly flow.

Not a great deal of swell too work with. 

Leftover S swell Sat morning looks to be the best of it with easing 2-3ft sets at S facing magnets. 

Through Sun that source will ease back and we’ll see a minor S swell signal coming from a trailing fetch associated with todays low stalling in the far southern Tasman. That should offer up the occ. 2ft set at S facing beaches, tiny elsewhere. Some very minor short range SE windswell is a possibility Sun PM depending on how the trough behaves. Nothing over 2ft is expected.

Next week (Dec16 onwards)

Elongated high pressure occupies the Tasman early next week. Expect a small start to the week with minor windswells.

A front and trough Tues brings a S’ly change at this stage, potentially vigorous with some short range S swell building in the a’noon under mod/fresh S’ly winds.

That swell looks to ease through Wed with moderating S’ly winds.

From there a S’ly fetch looks to build through the eastern Tasman, anchored by a trough of low pressure near the North Island (see below). Expect revisions on size and timing but at this stage we can expect a moderate S tending S/SE swell building Thurs into Fri into the 3-4ft range with bigger sets on the Hunter. Winds look to remain out of the southern quadrant during this period.

Some long range E-E/SE swell from a low pressure system in the South Pacific tracking southwards from this weekend should see some inconsistent 2ft sets in the mix with the occ. bigger set. 

Longer range and we may see a front or low move into the Tasman early Xmas week which could be a source of S swell for us. EC has a conservative outlook while GFS is suggesting quite a strong surface low forming odd the NSW South Coast. 

On the back of a monsoonal surge models are starting to look interested in low pressure development between PNG, the Solomons and Vanuatu which may indicate the first real tropical developments of the season. Still too early to have any expectations on surf potential from this area. 

We’ll track all this and report back on Fri.

Seeya then.