Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More minor S swells into the end of this week and into the weekend
• Gusty W-NW winds continue into and over the weekend
• Zonal pattern continues into next week with fresh W’lies and minor S swell wrap
• Stronger S swell likely Thurs next week- low confidence, check back Fri

Recap

More S swells yesterday with S magnets in the 2-3ft range and fresh W’lies. W’lies have kicked up another notch today and are really howling with easing S swells making surfing a marginal proposition.

This week and next week (Sep18 - Sep 27)

High pressure is now up over NSW and sliding into the Tasman, with zonal fronts below the continent bringing strong and gusty W-NW winds. Frontal activity is going to generate some small S pulses in the short term with some fun waves on tap at S facing beaches. Next week we should see a stronger system move NE into the Tasman potentially generating some sizier S swell. Quite a decent outlook for September.

In the short run we’ll see small S swells to 1-2ft and some minor N’ly windswell wrap to 1ft with continuing fresh and gusty W-NW winds through tomorrow. A minor increase in new S swell to 2ft is on the cards.

Similar winds for Fri - fresh and gusty W-NW- - so surfing will be tricky again. Thursdays minor pulse extends through Fri as a front pushes up past Tasmania.

Into the weekend and there’s no change to the outlook- constant fresh and gusty W’lies with some small S swell wrap getting into S facing beaches. Expect more surf in the 2ft range Sat, extending into Sun. We may see some minor N’ly windswell on Sun from gales out of Bass Strait.

We’ll see more off the same zonal pattern for the first half of next week with fresh W-NW winds and minor S swell wrap to 1-2ft. Monday shield see slightly more S swell to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches.

Mid week we’ll see a more meridional pattern with a SW angled front pushing up adjacent to Tas on late Wed into Thurs (see below). 

Front pushing more aggressively into Tasman next week brings S swell 

That should see winds shift from W-NW to fresh SW then S’ly with S swells building Thurs to 3ft.

A following front Fri should see another small boost in S swell.
Still a long way off so expect revisions top occur on Fri or early next week.

Seeya then.