Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S groundswell pulse Thurs PM extending into Fri with offshore winds
• Easing swells for the weekend- mostly small S swells
• NE windswell building Mon to sizey levels, easing quickly Tues
• More NE windswell possible later next week (Thurs/Fri)
• Larger S swell possible Mon of Xmas week- check back Fri for latest

Recap  

Tiny swells yesterday in the 0.5-1ft range have continued into today with mostly light, tending NW winds.

This week and next week (Dec11- Dec21)

A trough of low pressure is sitting off the North Coast, having moved northwards yesterday, bringing S’ly winds to the sub-tropics and temperate areas. As this system moves Eastwards and dissipates, weak high pressure moves into the Tasman. A deep low (962hPa) is currently well to the SW of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman, although being shunted to the SE as it does so. We’ll see some  S’ly groundswell from this source. The weak, troughy pattern and mobile high pressure systems extends into next week under current modelling. There are a couple of funky swell sources on the radar during this time frame.

In the short run we’ll see S groundswell fill in through tomorrow with sets building to 3-4ft at S facing beaches under mod/fresh W/NW tending NW winds.

That swell then eases off into Fri with 2-3ft sets early, dropping back to 1-2ft during the day under continuing W/NW-NW winds.

Into the weekend and trailing fetches behind todays deep low will generate some small S swell for Sat, up into the 1-2ft range under light winds as a trough hovers off the NE coast.

Small S swell from lingering winds in the far southern Tasman holds a 1-2ft surf into Sun and again, expect light winds swirling around a trough.

By Mon next week we’ll see a new high pressure cell in the Tasman and a fast developing N-N/NE fetch off the South Coast/Bass Strait. We’ll see NE winds quickly ramp up, tending N then NW late in the day as a front approaches. NE windswell ramps up quickly to 3ft by lunch-time then 4-5ft by late a’noon. Some really good waves may be on offer if the wind change comes quick enough.

Swell ramps down just as quickly during Tues as a front sweeps the state, bringing W’ly winds. Surf will drop quickly from 3-4ft to 1-2ft during the day.

High pressure moves over the state mid next week, leading to light winds and small swells.

Following that we may see another round of NE windswell develop late Thurs into Fri next week.

Longer range and we may see a front or low move into the Tasman early Xmas week which could be a source of S swell for us. EC has a conservative outlook while GFS is suggesting quite a strong surface low forming off the NSW South Coast. 

We’ll track all this and report back on Fri.

Seeya then. 

Seeya then.