Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S groundswell pulses Mon/Tues with fresh and gusty offshore winds
• N’ly windswell wrap Wed from NW gales out of Bass Strait
• More minor S swells into the end of next week and into the weekend
• Possible Sizey NE windswell Wed/Thurs next week

Recap

Small S swells initially Sat built into the 3-5ft range during the day, extending into Sun morning before easing with fresh/strong SW winds. Today has seen a new pulse to 2-3ft with directional S swell and W winds shifting SW then W/NW during the day. 

This week and next week (Sep16 - Sep 27)

After a spell of early spring heat the synoptic pattern has reversed back to a more winter style situation with frontal activity pushing into the Tasman , backed by a strong high (1040hPa) in the Bight. We’ll see this high rapidly weaken and move up over NSW and into the Tasman this week while zonal fronts continue westerly ridging below Tasmania. More frontal activity is expected later this week continuing the pattern of episodic S swells with generally favourable  winds. Let’s dig into the details.

In the short run the current frontal push into the Tasman has created todays pulse with tomorrow seeing surf to 2-3ft at S facing beaches with a long period pulse to 3ft in the a’noon under W/NW winds, freshening in the a’noon.

Similar winds for Wed with a front pushing strong to gale force W/NW-NW winds out of Bass Strait, generating some N’ly windswell wrap to 2ft at open beaches. 

We’ll see winds oscillate between W and W/NW Thurs and Fri as zonal fronts continue to strafe the state. Surf will be tiny but we should see some small S swell wrap Thurs into Fri in the 1-2ft range, as well as some N’ly windswell wrap later Thurs into Fri in the 2ft range. 

Into the weekend and a front passing under Tas on Fri should generate a small bump in new S swell Sat in the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks with W’ly winds tending W/NW during the day.

Easing S swells Sun AM with more offshore winds. We may see another small bump in S swell wrap Sun PM, persisting into Mon AM.

Nothing major to start next week. Looks like we will see fronts approaching the Tasman but steered southwards by a mild blocking pattern. That would suggest small/tiny surf for the first half of next week- with just some minor S swell trains keeping S facing beaches surfable. By mid next week we may see freshening N-NE flow off the South Coast into Bass Strait generate some NE windswell, possibly sizey. We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

Potential source of NE windswell next week- let's see how it looks on Wed

Seeya then.