South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor S-SE windswells Thurs, easing through the day,  with light S’ly winds tending E-NE’ly
• Small, flukey S groundswell showing across NENSW Fri PM, persisting into Sat with light winds
• Light winds and small swells this weekend, building a notch Sun PM into Mon
• S/SE swells building Thurs/Fri next week
• Long range E swell filling in Thurs/Fri next week
• Possible S swell for Xmas
• Tracking area between PNG and Solomon’s medium term for low pressure development- check back Fri for latest 

Recap

S swells showed across NENSW later Mon and into Tues, topping out around 3ft+ at select S facing beaches, and barely showing in SEQLD. Light winds around a trough offered clean conditions most of the day. That swell has now eased with mostly tiny surf across the region, apart from a few swell magnets in NENSW still offering a rideable wave. Some short range S/SE swell should perk up this a’noon. Clean conditions early are now being scuffed up by a mod S’ly flow. 

Even the magnets are tiny today in SEQLD

This week (Dec 11-13)

A trough of low pressure is sitting off the North Coast, having moved northwards yesterday, bringing S’ly winds to the sub-tropics and temperate areas. As this system moves Eastwards and dissipates, weak high pressure moves into the Tasman. A deep low (962hPa) is currently well to the SW of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman, although being shunted to the SE as it does so. We’ll see some flukey S’ly groundswell from this source. The weak, troughy pattern and mobile high pressure systems extends into next week under current modelling. There are a couple of funky swell sources on the radar during this time frame.

In the short run we’ll see light SE winds tend E’ly then shift back to the E/NE-NE through tomorrow as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. Early winds should be light SW-S. We’ll see some small SE swell to 2ft early, easing through the day.

Light winds expected early Fri, before winds tend NE and become mod on the North Coast, lighter across SEQLD. Not much surf to start with some small NE windswell to 1-2ft. By Fri a’noon we should see long period S swell fill in across the North Coast. It’s a flukey source in terms of position in the swell window, but a strong fetch and periods will be long (15-17 seconds). That could see 3-4ft surf at select S facing beaches by the a’noon. Expect no shows as well. In SEQLD we may see S swell just show at S swell magnets before dark.

This weekend (Dec14-15)

Light winds for Sat under a weak, troughy area. We should see morning land breezes before a’noon NE seabreezes establish. 

Similar winds for Sun although we may see a light S’ly flow depending on how the trough behaves. 

 S swell Sat morning looks to be the best of it with 3ft sets at S facing magnets in NENSW, easing through the a’noon. SEQLD will see tiny surf with the occ. 2ft set at S facing beaches. 

Into Sun that source will ease back and we’ll see a minor S swell signal coming from a trailing fetch associated with todays low stalling in the far southern Tasman. That should offer up the occ. 2ft set at S facing beaches in NENSW, tiny elsewhere. 

Next week (Dec16 onwards)

Elongated high pressure occupies the Tasman early next week. Expect a small start to the week with minor windswells.

A front and trough Tues brings a S’ly change at this stage either late Tues or early Wed,  potentially vigorous with some short range S swell building in Wed under mod/fresh S’ly winds.

From there a S’ly fetch looks to build through the eastern Tasman, anchored by a trough of low pressure near the North Island (see below). Expect revisions on size and timing but at this stage we can expect a moderate S tending S/SE swell building Thurs into Fri into the 3-4ft range with bigger sets on the Hunter. Winds look to remain out of the southern quadrant during this period.

Some long range E-E/SE swell from a low pressure system in the South Pacific tracking southwards from this weekend should see some inconsistent 3ft sets in the mix with the occ. bigger set during this period. 

Longer range and we may see a front or low move into the Tasman early Xmas week which could be a source of S swell for us. EC has a conservative outlook while GFS is suggesting quite a strong surface low forming off the NSW South Coast. 

On the back of a monsoonal surge models are starting to look interested in low pressure development between PNG, the Solomons and Vanuatu which may indicate the first real tropical developments of the season. Still too early to have any expectations on surf potential from this area but we will keep our eyes on it.

We’ll track all this and report back on Fri.

Seeya then.