Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building NE windswell Sat, peaking Sun at sizey levels
• Small but quality E/NE swell next Mon/Tues week as trough moves south in Tasman
• More S swell pulses Tues/Wed and Thurs/Fri
• Better quality SE-E/SE swell Fri/Sat with N’ly winds

Recap

Small surf Thurs with some size today in the 3ft range under W/SW winds which have tended NW/NE in the a'noon.

This weekend and next week (Sep25 - Oct4)

No great change to the weekend outlook, with a strong high (1030hPa) moving offshore from the south coast of NSW and a coastal low forming off the North Coast of NSW. We’ll see a N’ly flow develop off the high tomorrow with freshening N-NW winds and some small NE windswell developing in the a’noon to 2ft.

O’night the fetch lengthens and strengthens with fresh N’ly winds in the morning, tending W/NW as a front approaches and passes over the state. NE windswell builds overnight and carries size to 3-4ft before easing in the a’noon. There should be a sweet spot as winds shift offshore during the day.

Into next week and we’ll see some small but good quality E/NE-NE show from the remnants of the North Coast low which forms a trough and moves south from Sun. 

Small and clean in the 2-3ft range Mon, holding into Tues morning before easing. 

A front Tues will see winds shift from W to SW and we’ll see some small S swell from the front in the a’noon, not exceeding 2-3ft.

Further ahead and we’ll see more S swell pulses Wed and Thurs from a frontal series passing into the Tasman. Small S swell wrap to 2-3ft both days, with tiny surf away from S exposed breaks.

The situation becomes dynamic again next week. The trough is expected to stall in the central Tasman with a new strong front pushing NE into the Tasman and becoming incorporated into the trough system (see below). The system then looks to stall and intensify near the South Island, possibly even retrograding mid next week.

Stronger SE-E/SE pulses then fill in Fri/Sat from the reintensified low system. Too early to have confidence in size and specifics but current modelling suggests 3-4ft surf with N’ly winds.

Worth pencilling in now and checking back in Mon.

Longer term and we’ll see those swells ease through Sun with another frontal system early week beginning 7/10.

Active period ahead so stay tuned for Monday’s updates and until then, have a great weekend!