Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swell Sat with early SW winds, tending light S then variable and light NE
• Tiny surf into Sun- mostly weak E/NE swells favouring open beaches with light N-NE winds
• Not much for the start of next week, more low energy surf Mon with NE windswell Tues
• S’ly change due Tues next week, possibly small short range S swell building Tues PM
• Better odds for some sizey S swell Wed as trough of low pressure forms in Tasman
• Potentially sizey rebuild in S/SE swell Fri/Sat as trough deepens into low 
• Small, long range E-E/SE swell in the mix later next week
• Closer range E swell Thurs/Fri next week

Recap

Small SE swells held a surfable signal yesterday in the 2ft range with the occ.3ft set on the Hunter with early light winds tending NE’ly in the a’noon. S groundswell has filled in strongly today with some solid 4-5ft sets at S facing beaches (even a few 6footers!) and bigger outliers at S facing reefs. Early light NW breezes are now tending light N’ly with a late SE/SW wind expected as a trough moves northwards. 

Long period S swell breaking end to end at Australia's best known S facing beach

This weekend (Dec14-15)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The trough induced S’ly change persists into tomorrow morning with light SW breezes early tending light S’ly then variable as the trough quickly washes out. By a’noon we should see a light N-NE seabreeze kick in.

Leftover S’ly groundswell supplies some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches, on an easing trend. Small amounts of E/NE swell coming from high pressure in the Tasman feeding into a small trough supply some 1-2ft surf in the a’noon.

N’ly winds for Sun with morning NW breezes tending N’ly then mod NE in the a’noon. E/NE swell from  a small trough in the Northern Tasman retrograding back to the SW through Sat supplies a small, peaky wave to 2ft at open beaches. It’ll be low powered but there should be a small, rideable wave around.

Next week (Dec16 onwards)

Small surf continues into Mon as high pressure slides into the Tasman. Light/mod N’lies and small E/NE swells to 1-2ft are expected Mon.

Increasing N-NE winds should see NE windswells bump up a notch on Tues. A trough brings a sharp and vigorous S’ly change later Tues. 

Latest model runs have amplified this trough and a resulting trough of low pressure in the Tasman. There’s still some model divergence to get through so expect some revisions but odds are firming off a sizey S tending S/SE swell event from Wed, as the trough deepens in the Central Tasman. 

Under best case (GFS) scenarios we’ll expect a steep rise in S swell Wed, up into the 4-6ft range under fresh S tending S/SE winds. 

That initial peak then eases into Thurs before a strong new peak in S/SE swell Fri or Sat as the trough forms a surface low in the central Tasman and strong winds to gales are aimed back at Central NSW. 

We’ll pencil in surf rebuilding to 4-6ft either later Fri or into Sat depending on the timing and evolution of the low.

Keep in mind, the lower case scenario (EC) which suggests a similar initial spike in S swell Wed before an easing Thurs then a more modest rebuild later Fri or Sat. 

Either way, there should be some juice in the water later next week.

Couple of E swell sources in the water during this time frame as well. First, from a distant low forming this weekend in Tahitian longitudes which supplies some very inconsistent long range energy into next weekend.

Added to by a low forming north of the North Island Tues which adds some small E swells into the mix Thurs/Fri.

Both of those sources will be overshadowed by stronger, Tasman sea swells but they definitely will add to the wave energy in the mix.

Let’s see how they look on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!