Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday October 2nd)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mix of S and E/NE swells fading tomorrow with W/NW tending strong N/NE-NE winds
• Building N/NE windswell Fri with strong N/NE winds
• Easing N/NE windswell Sat with a new, moderate sized E/SE groundswell
• W/NW tending stronger NW winds, shifting S'ly into the PM to the south
• Easing E/SE swell Sun with strengthening NW tending W winds

Recap

The surf has been generally tiny with background levels of E/NE energy not reaching the expected 2ft, mostly coming in at 1-1.5ft.

Some new S’ly swell is expected across the south magnets today thanks to a cold front projecting up into the Tasman Sea yesterday afternoon/evening.

This week and next (Oct 3 - 11)

The small S’ly swell energy for today should ease back from 2ft across the south magnets during the morning tomorrow under a W/NW tending strong N/NE-NE breeze.

This breeze will strengthen further overnight and into Friday, kicking up a building N/NE windswell that’s due reach a weak 2-3ft into the afternoon along with strong N/NE winds.

This infeed of N/NE winds will be cut off by a W/NW change on Saturday, with easing levels of N/NE windswell due from 2ft or so across north facing beaches.

Of greater importance is the arrival of an E/SE groundswell through Saturday, with it being generated by a strong low forming off New Zealand’s South Island tomorrow.

A great fetch of gale to severe-gale SE winds are due to be aimed through our eastern swell window, with the low weakening while shifting more E/SE in fetch direction on Friday.

This should produce a moderate sized E/SE groundswell for Saturday to 4ft on the sets across open beaches, easing slowly into Sunday from 3ft.

Winds on Saturday are due to strengthen from the NW during the day, though a S’ly change is due across southern locations into the afternoon, with Sunday seeing N/NW tending stronger W’ly winds as a deepening low moves across us.

Looking at next week, the E/SE swell will be tiny and fading on Monday, with a weak low likely to bring a small, weak S’ly swell for Tuesday/Wednesday. This doesn’t look overly significant so make the most of the weekend’s swell.