A complex polar low is approaching the NZ corridor and although the frontal progression looks a notch less favourable for swell production up the East Coast we’ll still see S’ly groundswell pulses over the weekend.
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Local swell sources dry up but polar lows better aimed at Pacific targets will send some long period S swell up the pipe from Fri into the weekend before a more subdued outlook takes hold.
Another massive high is mooching in the Bight, with a snails pace of eastwards movement expected this week. Wind-wise that will anchor a S’ly flow in the short run before W’ly ridging resumes .
A front passing Tasmania today triggers an angled trough of low pressure off the NSW Coast o/night which quickly moves out into the Tasman Sea. The front will generate strong S swells for Sat with fresh SW winds.
Backed by a strong high we’ll see very tight coastal pressure gradients with strong S’lies Sat and a large windy S swell
A much stronger and more aggressive frontal intrusion Fri looks to see S swell spike in the a’noon with tiny surf building rapidly into the evening.
High pressure is slowly advancing over Tasmania bringing settled conditions and light winds. No great change to the weekend f/cast. Todays S swell levels off a notch through Sat.
Polar lows are expected to send some more small S pulses later this week into the weekend.
In fact, it becomes reinforced by a new high and this peanut high straddling Tasmania will set up a right of S’ly winds which will tend E’ly later in the week as high pressure moves to the E of the Island. Some polar low activity will supply some small S groundswell pulses this week.
Into next week and light winds Mon and Tues as high pressure approaches the state. Not much swell on tap.