Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• More small S swell pulses this week up Tues, down Wed
• Minor E swell Wed/Thurs
• Small increase in S swell Fri
• Small S groundswell wrap this weekend with S’ly winds

Recap

Solid S swell Sat in the 4-5ft range with fresh SW winds. Size eased into Sun with 3-4ft surf easing during the day. SW/S winds again today as a front sweeps into the Tasman with 2-3ft of S swell at S facing beaches.

This week and next week (May20- May31)

Another massive high is mooching in the Bight, with a snails pace of eastwards movement expected this week. Wind-wise that will anchor a S’ly flow in the short run before W’ly ridging resumes . The remnants of the weekend’s low pressure trough are currently being reinforced by a another cold front and expected to form a broad low pressure system in the Tasman in the short term which looks too far north for Tasmania. That will leave small S swell wrap this week. Another rebuild in S-S/SE swell looks likely into the weekend.

In the short run a small kick in S swell wrap from a front passed into the Tasman into today sees some 2-3ft surf tomorrow  at S facing beaches with SW winds easing through the day.
That swell eases through Wed with winds tending W’ly as a front and polar low passes to the south of the state.

Tiny swells through Thurs with a minor E swell from the low in the Tasman offering up a 1-1.5ft wave at best and some minor S swell in the a’noon. Mostly tiny/flat.

By Fri another frontal system should see winds shift SW-S and accompany a small boost in S swell to 2-3ft in the a’noon.

High pressure still sits SW or S of Tasmania this weekend, possibly with a reinforcing cell.  That will maintain or increase a S-SE flow along the coast. The curve ball is a potential small trough of low pressure suggested by GFS (see below), which would increase the SE flow and generate an increase in short range SE-E swell through Sat into Sun.

Small trough of low pressure may bring SE winds and swell this weekend

Absent that trough we’ll see a lighter S’ly flow for the weekend.

Polar low activity remains better aimed at New Zealand and Pacific targets (Raglan has been pumping from these swells) and we’ll see these lows steered into the Tahitian swell window over the weekend and early next week.

Glancing blows from long period S’ly swells should see some 2-3ft surf across S facing beaches over the weekend. 

High pressure should finally move into the Tasman early next week, with winds becoming light at least into the middle of the week.

No major swell sources on the radar. S’ly groundswell should offer up a few sets Mon before fading out.

Looks like a few small days then into the middle and end of next week.

There some suggestion of a trough line forming off the NSW Coast later next week, with no concrete surf potential as yet attached to it.

We’ll keep eyes on that and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya Wed.