Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• S swell pulse Thurs
• Stronger S swell building Fri PM, peaking Sat
• Easing S swells Sun
• More S swell pulses next week

Recap

Not much surf to recap, just a 1-1.5ft wave yesterday with W’ly winds and tiny surf today with W’ly winds.

This week and next week (May15- May24)

The coastal low off NSW has drifted off into the Tasman, dragging a weak front with it, and we’re seeing a large high move over NSW before entering the Tasman later this week. Combined with fronts to the south that is maintaining W’ly ridging across Tasmania. The headline news is a strong front which will trigger a low-pressure trough o/night Fri into Sat. Backed by a strong high we’ll see very tight coastal pressure gradients with strong  S’lies Sat and a large windy S swell. Further frontal activity early next week looks to supply more sizey S swells. Looks like an active, windy week ahead.

In the short run, expect a nice pulse of S swell tomorrow from the front passing under Tas today. Offshore W-W/NW winds will groom surf to 3ft at S faience beaches, biggest from mid morning.

That swell then temporarily eases into Fri morning, holding some 2ft sets under offshore winds. By the a’noon a much stronger front will be tracking NE up past the state. That will see winds tend SW-S/SW and freshen in the a’noon and size build to 3-4ft at S facing beaches by dark.

Solid S swell will on tap for Sat with size to 5-6ft at S facing beaches, easing through the day. Early SW-S/SW winds will tend more offshore W as a new frontal system approaches the Island.

Size eases into Sun with S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches and winds shifting SW-S/SW again in the a’noon as the front passes to the NE of the state.

Into next week and as per Mondays notes, frontal intrusions into the Tasman and below Tasmania will bring S swells most of next week, potentially moderate/sizey in dimension and with accompanying SW-S winds .

By Mon we should be on the up again, with size building to 3-4ft through the a’noon and holding through Tues. We won’t put too much stock into these specifics because there is still a chance we could see low pressure develop in the eastern Tasman (as per the EC resolution) which would see better quality S/SE-SE swells from mid next week.

It will be an active week and by the end of it we should see high pressure near Tasmania suggesting continuing light winds into next weekend. 

Like all troughy patterns in the Tasman, especially this time of year, expect revisions as we get nearer to the event.

Check back Fri for the latest updates.