Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, fun S swells Sat, easing right back into Sun
• Light winds both days, tending N’ly Sun a’noon
• Small again next week
• Small S swell pulse Thurs
• More significant S swell event likely next weekend, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Small surf yesterday with an increase in S swell to 2-3ft and some small E swell to 2ft. Winds are light and surface conditions glassy.

This weekend and next week (May10- May17)

High pressure is slowly advancing over Tasmania bringing settled conditions and light winds. No great change to the weekend f/cast. Todays S swell levels off a notch and supplies some 2 occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches tomorrow with light winds. Small amounts of E/SE swell pad out wave heights to 2ft.

Light winds again Sun with morning offshore breezes tending to N’ly breezes in the a’noon. Not much surf though- a few 2ft sets early then becoming tiny in the a’noon.

Into next week and there’s not much on the radar to kick off the new week. High pressure to the north and zonal fronts to the south will see a W’ly flow across the Island for Mon and Tues and likely Wed. No swell from the zonal fronts so we’ll see tiny/flat surf for the first half of next week. 

A slightly better aligned fetch on a decaying front Wed sees a small S swell wrap in for Thurs, with size to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches and offshore W-W/NW winds.

Decaying front brings small S swell Thurs

Easing swells into Fri.

We may see another frontal progression next weekend with GFS suggesting a deep trough of low pressure triggered by a front. Under this scenario we’ll see increasing S’ly swell Sat, becoming sizey on Sun. EC suggests a bog standard frontal progression with some small S swell.

Low confidence this far out and because of poor model agreement.

Lets see how it looks Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!