Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Surf tiny/small Tues with light winds
• Small S pulse Wed
• Bigger S swell pulse  Fri
• Easing S swells this weekend
• Small again next week
• Possible NE windswell mid next week

Recap

Plenty of S swell to 3ft at S facing beaches Sat with light winds, easing right back to 1ft Sun and remaining tiny today under light winds and sunny skies. 

This week and next week (May6- May17)

We have a similar pattern to last week with monster high pressure (1037hPa) sitting in the Bight and becoming very slow moving as it approaches Tasmania. In fact, it becomes reinforced by a new high and this peanut high straddling Tasmania will set up a right of S’ly winds which will tend E’ly later in the week as high pressure moves to the E of the Island. Some polar low activity will supply some small S groundswell pulses this week.

In the short run tiny with light winds and nothing worth worrying about.

By Wed a ridge will set-up S/SE tending E’ly winds. We should see an increase in both short range SE swell to 3ft and long period S swell wrap to 2-3ft at S facing beaches. Onshore winds will lead to poor surface conditions for the most part.

Polar lows bring small S pulses Wed and Fri

Second half of the week sees E’ly flow adjacent to Tasmania hold 2ft of short range swell with light winds, possibly trending SW if a small trough forms south of Hobart.

A polar low then sends more long period swell for Fri with sets to 3-4ft in the a’noon and light winds. We’ll finesse wind directions on Wed because it depends on the position of any small trough forming in advance of high pressure moving over the state. 

Into the weekend  and high pressure will be straddling Tasmania with a light SE flow expected Sat, tending more E-NE Sun and morning land breezes. Not much surf unfortunately with easing S swells Sat- a few 3ft sets early dropping right back through the day and leftover 2ft sets Sun morning dropping back to tiny during the day.

We’ll see a small start to next week with tiny surf expected Mon into Tues.

High pressure moves NE of Tas during this period and there’s a good chance we may see some NE windswell develop mid next week, as a pre-frontal N-NE flow develops off the South Coast NSW down into Bass Strait.

We’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Wed.
Seeya then.